[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near gale-force winds are
also expected Wed night. Seas will build to 12 ft with the
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product in the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N43W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
the Monsoon trough from 00N-06N between 05W-19W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ
between 23W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front exists from near Key West, Florida, to
26N91W where it transitions to a warm front and extends to the
middle Texas coast. Convection previously associated with this
front has generally diminished, although a few showers persist
In the Central Gulf. North of the frontal boundary, moderate to
locally fresh NE-E winds prevail, with gentle E-SE winds south
of the front.

The stationary front is forecast to lift N as a warm front today
and be north of the area late tonight. Moist southerly flow may
allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf
through mid week. Looking ahead, another front will move off the
Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the western Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

The latest scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong trades
dominating the entire basin with the exception of the northwest
Caribbean where flow becomes moderate to fresh. Seas of 8 to
11 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are
observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean into Fri night. Near gale force winds are expected off
the coast of Colombia nightly through the forecast period,
except tonight where gale conditions are forecast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N63W to the NW Bahamas, then stalls
to near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A band of thunderstorms
stretches along the cold frontal portion of the boundary, with
scattered showers along the front from the Bahamas to the Florida
coast. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SW winds are
occurring, with fresh NE winds behind the front. High pressure of
1027 mb centered near 30N36W dominates much of the rest of the
basin, causing gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. To the south,
moderate to fresh trades prevail, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft.

The entire front will gradually stall today, then lift north as a
warm front tonight, and out of the region Tue. The next cold
front may not move off the SE U.S. coast until Thu or Fri.

$$
MORA
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