[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 06 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 12 feet, are present, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from
11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down
to less than gale-force by Friday morning. Please, refer to the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to
02N30W, and 01N38W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N
to 07N between 10W and 12W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 07N southward between 10W and 24W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the border of SE Georgia and Florida,
across north central Florida, into the north central Gulf of
Mexico, to NE coastal Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 25N
northward. Other broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 27N southward
from 88W eastward.

A surface trough is along 26N94W to the coast of Mexico near
20N97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are from 24N southward from 94W
westward.

The current cold front, from the Florida Bend Bend to the
Texas/Mexico border, will stall overnight. The front will begin
to move northward as a warm front on Saturday, but be replaced
by a reinforcing cold front. This merged cold front then will
stall on Sunday, from near Fort Myers Florida to the Bay of
Campeche. Looking ahead, the front will move northward and
dissipate early next week. Moist southerly flow may allow areas
of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf of Mexico
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is 150 nm to the southwest of the line
from NW Cuba to the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 18N northward between 76W and 85W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. Some of the those clouds are
from 16N southward from 75W westward, and from 70W eastward.

High pressure, building to the north of the Caribbean Sea, will
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea into mid week. The winds will pulse to gale-force
nightly, through the weekend, off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N50W to 31N52W. The stationary
front is dissipating from 31N52W, to 25N60W, 20N70W, to the
interior sections of the NW part of the Dominican Republic from
19N to 20N between 70W and 71W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 31N to 33N between 47W and
the frontal boundary. Nearby precipitation that is mostly not
related to the frontal boundary: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 07N northward between 50W and 60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the dissipating stationary front. A ridge
extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center, that is near
31N57W, to 29N61W 25N70W and 23N79W. A 1033 mb high pressure
center is near 36N35W.

The current weakening stationary front, from 22N65W to the
Dominican Republic, will dissipate overnight. A weak cold front
will move off the NE Florida coast tonight then stall Sat from
31N73W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Strong S winds will
develop N of 28N, as the front moves northward as a warm front,
on Saturday night. Another cold front will move off the Florida
coast on Sunday morning. This front will move SE, then stall on
Monday, from Bermuda to near Miami, Florida, and then lift
northward and dissipate through mid week.

$$
mt/sk
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