[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052249
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building across the basin
combined with lower pressure over South America will produce
gale force winds tonight with seas 10 to 12 ft. These conditions
will pulse every night through the weekend, with seas ranging
between 8 to 11 ft. Please refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N13W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 200 nm
of both boundaries between 20W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf waters,
stretching from the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to
South Texas near 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough stretches across
the northeast Gulf from 30N84W to 26N87W. Showers are noted
along and north of the front and trough mainly N of 26N.
Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the front, while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail ahead of the front. To the SW, a
1008 mb low is located in the Bay of Campeche near 22N97W, with
a surface trough stretching from 26N97W to 19N95W. Seas range
from 3 to 5 ft across the basin.

The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf this evening.
The front will lift north tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold
front that will move across the western Gulf Sat, before stalling
from southwest Florida to the north central Yucatan Peninsula by
Sun night. Looking ahead, the front will lift north and
dissipate early next week. Moist southerly flow may allow areas
of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Relatively dry conditions dominate the basin. Fresh to strong winds
are noted in the central Caribbean with the strongest winds
north of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail.
Seas are 3 ft in the NW Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean and 6-10 ft in the south-central portion of the basin.

High pressure building north of the Caribbean will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into
mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Sat night
off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic from
31N53W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. To the east, a
surface trough is analyzed from 26N55W to 21N55W. A 1024 mb
surface high is west of the front centered near 29N62W. High
pressure extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1031 mb high near 35N34W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
are noted in the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are in
the central Atlantic with strong to near gale-force winds in the
eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands. Seas range 3-6 ft in
the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic.

The stationary front will dissipate by tonight. A weak cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight then
stall and lift north Sat. Southerly winds increase Sat night and
early Sun off northeast Florida ahead of another cold front
expected to move off the coast Sun morning. That front will shift
east and stall from Bermuda to South Florida by Mon morning,
then lift north and dissipate through mid week.

$$
ERA
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