[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building across the basin
combined with lower pressure over South America will produce
gale force winds tonight with seas 10 to 12 ft. Gale-force winds
will occur once again Sat and Sun night with seas 8 to 11 ft.
Please refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to
03N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W to 22W and from
01N to 04N between 35W to 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
stretching from the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to
South Texas near 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough stretches across
the northeast Gulf from 30N84W to 28N88W. Showers are noted
along and north of the front and trough, N of 27N between 83W
and 97W. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the front, with
gentle to moderate southerly winds ahead of the front. Showers
are also noted off the southwest Florida coast. A 1008 mb low is
located in the Bay of Campeche near 22N97W with a surface trough
stretching from 24N98W to 19N96W. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft
across the basin.

The cold front will move east then stall across the northern
Gulf by late today. The front will lift north tonight ahead of a
reinforcing cold front that will move across the western Gulf
Sat, before stalling from southwest Florida to the north central
Yucatan Peninsula by Sun night. Looking ahead, the front will
lift north and dissipate early next week. Moist southerly flow
may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central
Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and the
NW Caribbean. Otherwise, relatively dry conditions dominate the
basin. Fresh to near gale-force winds are noted in the central
Caribbean with the strongest winds north of Colombia. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate trades are noted across the eastern Caribbean
with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the NW Caribbean.
Seas are 3 ft in the NW Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean and 6-10 ft in the south-central portion of the basin.

High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean
through Tue night. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and
Sat night off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic from
31N54W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. A trough is noted
from 25N54W to 19N54W. A 1024 mb high is west of the front near
30N67W. High pressure extends across the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1032 mb high near 35N36W. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are noted in the western Atlantic. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the central Atlantic with strong to near
gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic near the Canary
Islands. Seas range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft
in the central Atlantic.

The stationary will dissipate by tonight. Southerly winds will
increase east of northern Florida Fri as a cold front approaches
the area. This front will stall off the northern Florida coast
Sat, then move SE again Sun as low pressure forms north of the
area. Strong S winds are expected in advance of this front Sun,
mainly N of 28N.

$$
AReinhart
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