[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building into the basin
combined with lower pressure over South America is producing a
strong pressure gradient and allowing gale force winds early this
morning offshore Colombia, along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Wind
will subside a bit later this morning to below gale force, but my
increase again to 35 kt Sat evening and night. Please refer to
the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to
02N30W, and 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 16W and 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted N of the ITCZ and S of 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered E of the basin is bringing southerly winds
to the basin along with generally dry conditions. Winds are
moderate in the eastern Gulf and fresh to locally strong in the
western Gulf, highest offshore Veracruz, Mexico. A cold front has
emerged off the Texas coast early this morning. Although a few
showers are located along this front, no significant convection is
occurring. Winds behind the front are fresh NE.

Fresh to locally strong southerly winds in the western Gulf ahead
of a cold front will prevail today. The front will move slowly
through the northern Gulf through Sat, then move into the
southeast basin Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front is located over Puerto Rico extending SW
into adjacent waters. A surface trough stretches from Haiti to
13N70W. Convection that had been associated with these features
has diminished. Overall, the basin is being dominated by
relatively dry, fresh trades between high pressure to the north
and lower pressure over South America. Strong E winds are
occurring in the south-central Caribbean, and see Special Features
section about for details on ongoing gales off the coast of
Colombia.

High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean
through Tue night. Winds will pulse each evening off the coast of
Colombia, with gales expected early this morning and again Sat
evening.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N53W to Puerto Rico. A band
of moderate convection is along this frontal boundary, to the
north of 23N. Ahead of this front, an expansive surface ridge
centered SW of the Azores is dominating weather, bringing moderate
to fresh trades to eastern waters. Behind the front, 1021 mb high
pressure center NE of the Bahamas is keeping gentle to moderate
northerly winds in place across most areas, but areas north of the
Bahamas and offshore Florida are beginning to see moderate to
fresh return flow. Northerly swell encompasses much of the basin,
with seas averaging 7 to 10 ft. Seas up to 12 ft are observed E of
Bermuda along 30N.

The cold front will stall and dissipate by tonight. Southerly
winds will increase east of northern Florida Fri as a cold front
approaches the area. This front will stall off the northern
Florida coast Sat, then move SE again Sun as low pressure forms
north of the area. Strong S winds are expected in advance of this
front Sun, mainly N of 28N.

$$
KONARIK
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