[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 05 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
10 feet, are imminent, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from
11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The wind speeds will slow down
to less than gale-force by Friday morning. Please, refer to the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W,
to 02N30W, and 02N40W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within
75 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 16W and 19W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic
Ocean 1020 mb high pressure center, that is near 27N75W, through
central Florida, into the central sections of the Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front is passing through east Texas, to south
central Texas, into northern sections of Mexico, and returning
through west Texas.

Fresh southerly winds in the western Gulf of Mexico are to the
east of a cold front, that will prevail into Friday. This cold
front will stall along the northern Gulf of Mexico into
Saturday, then move southward as it is reinforced by another
front for Sunday. The front will stall from South Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula, at the start of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 24N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Puerto Rico, to 17N69W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 23N northward between 50W and 60W.
Isolated moderate, weakening with time, has been from 18N to 22N
between 57W and the cold front.

A surface trough extends from 22N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Haiti, to 15N78W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers,
are within 120 nm on either side of the line from 22N65W to
20N72W to 15N78W.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, through
eastern Panama, beyond 08N80W in Panama, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 11N
southward between Colombia and 80W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. Some of the those clouds are
from Panama to Nicaragua from 81W westward.

High pressure, building to the north of the Caribbean Sea, will
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday, with a pulse of gale-force winds
likely overnight offshore Colombia. Strong to near gale-force
winds are expected to continue near the coast of Colombia during
the overnights into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 24N60W, across Puerto
Rico, to 17N69W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 23N northward between 50W and 60W.
Isolated moderate, weakening with time, has been from 18N to 22N
between 57W and the cold front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the cold front/stationary front. A 1020 mb
high pressure center is near 27N75W.

The winds and seas, associated with a now-stalled front that is
extending from 31N58W to Haiti, will continue to diminish
tonight as the front dissipates. Southerly winds will increase
to the east of northern Florida on Friday, as a cold front
approaches the area. The cold front will reach from 31N75W to
Cape Canaveral, then stall through the weekend. The front will
move northward on Sunday night as a warm front, and as a result,
fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected in the north waters
on Sunday.

$$
mt/sk
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