[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 09N13W to
05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 02N31W to the
northern coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 15N and east of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
extends across the basin supporting fair weather. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds prevail across the western half of the
basin, while gentle to moderate southwesterly winds prevail
across the eastern half. Seas are less than 4 ft in the E and
central Gulf, increasing to 3-5 ft along the NW Gulf coast.

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will continue
over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front that will
move into the northern Gulf by early Fri morning. The front will
stall from central Florida to Brownsville Texas Fri night, then
drift northward on Sat. A reinforcing cold air will push the
front again across the Gulf waters by late Sat, reaching the SE
Gulf waters on Sun, where it will stall by Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends across the central Caribbean
from 18N74W to 14N78W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh easterly winds across most of the basin, with strongest
winds noted over the waters around the Greater Antilles. Seas
are 6-9 ft in the E and central Caribbean, while 3-4 ft prevail
in the NW Caribbean.

Cool air behind the stationary front continues to spread across
the western half of the basin, with maximum temperatures
remaining in the 70F's across Cuba, Cayman Islands, and in the
low 80F's over Jamaica.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure
building north of the Caribbean will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected to pulse near
the coast of Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the coast of Hispaniola
near 20N70W. Fresh SW winds are along the front mainly north of
28N, according to the latest scatterometer pass. Scattered
moderate convection is also present along and east of the front
mainly N of 25N. A reinforcing cold front enters the area
extending from 31N61W to 26N69W. High pressure is building
across the western portion of the basin behind the fronts,
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N76W. Gentle to
moderate W winds prevail west of both fronts to the Florida
coast. To the east, surface ridging also prevails across the
eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near
38N38W.

Winds and seas associated with a cold front will continue to
diminish tonight as the front moves eastward and weakens.
Southerly winds will increase east of northern Florida on Fri as
a new cold front approaches the area. The front will stall from
31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Sat, then lift northward Sat night as
a low pressure system develops northeast of Jacksonville
Florida. As a result, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected
over the north waters on Sun.

$$
ERA
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