[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force NE to E winds will diminish some later this morning,
but pulse again tonight and again Sun night as a tight pressure
gradient between lower pressure over South America and high
pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds.
Please, refer to the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
02N30W and 01N38W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to
07N between 10W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S
of 07N between 10W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front extends from just north of Tampa Bay,
Florida to 27N90W to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is located N of the front, to the E of 90W. A surface
trough over the western Bay of Campeche is not producing any
sensible weather at this time. Fresh NE winds are occurring N of
the cold front, otherwise gentle to moderate winds prevail over
the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

The cold front will stall later this morning, retreat northward
as a warm front this afternoon, then be reinforced by a secondary
cold front surge in tonight. By late Sun, this combined front will
stall from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. This front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon
and move N of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow
areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale
conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping
dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades
prevailing. Sea range from 5 to 8 ft.

High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into
the middle of next mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force
nightly into early next week off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The stationary front that was located from near 32N50W to the
Dominican Republic has devolved into a surface trough. This trough
will weaken and dissipate today. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the trough N of 30N. High pressure dominates the
Atlantic on either side of the front, with a 1030 mb center
located SW of the Azores and a 1026 high near 33N55W. Winds
throughout the basin are mainly moderate to fresh out of the NE to
E. Decaying swell S of 20N is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft to the north.

A cold front has emerged off the SE U.S. coast from 32N77W to near
Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is located
within 60 nm of either side of this boundary. Ahead of the front,
W of 65W and

This cold front will stall through tonight in the far NW waters,
then be replaced by a slightly stronger cold front Sun. Ahead of
this second front, strong S winds will redevelop N of 28N. This
front will move SE then stall from near Bermuda to around Fort
Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then gradually lift N.N of
38N, fresh to strong S winds are occurring.

$$
KONARIK
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