[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 04 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W,
to 03N26W, 04N29W, 02N34W, to the Equator along 38W, and to the
Equator along 41W. Precipitation: scattered strong within 75 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 27W and 30W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 06N between 20W and
32W, and from 03N southward between 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge passes through Mississippi and Alabama,
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 19N96W.

High pressure across the southern U.S.A., that extends into the
Gulf of Mexico, will shift eastward through Thursday. The
movement of the high pressure will be followed by a cold front,
that will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early on Friday
morning. The front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida to
Brownsville Texas on Friday afternoon, then weaken and drift
northward through Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are expected in advance of the front on
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 25N65W, to 22N70W, across the
western sections of Haiti, to Panama just to the east of 09N80W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the W and NW
of the stationary front.

A surface trough extends from 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
NW Puerto Rico, to Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with the
surface trough.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, through
eastern Panama, beyond 08N80W in Panama, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent with the surface trough.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The current stationary front, that is stretching from Haiti to
Panama, will weaken tonight and dissipate gradually on Thursday.
High pressure, building to the north of the Caribbean Sea, will
support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia
beginning tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W to 31N60W. The front becomes
stationary from 31N60W, to 25N65W, to 22N70W, across the western
sections of Haiti, to Panama just to the east of 09N80W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
165 nm on either side of the line that runs from 24N62W to
28N60W, beyond 32N58W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 20N to 24N between 60W and 75W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the cold front/stationary front.

The current nearly stationary front, extending from 31N59W to
Haiti, will stall and weaken through Thursday. The winds
associated with the front will diminish tonight and on Thursday.
Long period northerly swell in the wake of the front will
propagate across the forecast waters,
to the Caribbean Sea passages, through Thursday.

$$
mt/dm
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