[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032217
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from
32N58W to 24N64W then stationary to Hispaniola. Near gale to
gale force winds are north of 27N west of the front to 73W. These
winds are expected to persist through early this evening. Seas
are 12-18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N E of 21N to the coast of Africa. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 03N
between 31W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the basin. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range over the SE half of the basin, and 1-3 ft over
the NW half of the basin.

The area of high pressure will shift eastward through Thu, ahead
of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early Fri
morning. The cold front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida
to Brownsville Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken and drift
northward through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds are expected ahead of the front on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti to Panama. Fresh to strong
winds, with seas of 7-10 ft, prevail south of 15N west of the
front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail
elsewhere west of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are noted within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia,
with moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, elsewhere east
of the front.

The stationary front will weaken by tonight. High pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong
trade winds near the coast of Colombia beginning tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A cold front extends from 32N58W to 24N64W then stationary to
Hispaniola. Near gale to gale force winds are noted north of 27N
west of the front to 73W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere
north of 25N west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are seen
south of 25N. Seas are in the 12-18 ft range north of 27N between
60W and 75W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere over the open waters west of
65W. East of the front, high pressure dominates the forecast
waters, anchored by 1033 mb high centered near 36N41W. Fresh to
strong SE to S winds are north of 20N between 53W and 60W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere north of
20N. Fresh to strong trades are found south of 20N. Seas of 7-10
ft are noted east of 60W, and 8-11 ft south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
24N65W to Dominican Republic this evening, then stall and weaken
on Thu. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight and Thu. Long
period northerly swell in the wake of the front will propagate
across the forecast waters to the Caribbean passages through Thu.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net