[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
03N26W to 04N29W to 02N34W to the Equator along 38W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 23W and 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge passes through Mississippi and Alabama,
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 19N96W.

High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward today,
ahead of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early
Friday morning. The cold front will stall from central Florida to
Brownsville Texas Friday night, then weaken and drift northward
through Monday night. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are
expected ahead of the front in the western Gulf today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the western sections of Haiti
near 20N72W to Panama near 09N80W. Isolated showers are within
120 nm to the W and NW of the stationary front.

A surface trough extends from 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
NW Puerto Rico, to Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. Isolated
showers are apparent with the surface trough.

A surface trough extends from 11N74W in northern Colombia, to
beyond 08N80W in Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with the
surface trough.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated showers, span
the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the surface-to-low
level wind flow.

The stationary front will weaken and gradually dissipate today.
High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N58W to the western sections of
Haiti near 20N72W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring north of 24N within 120 nm on either side of the
front. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated
showers are noted from 20N to 24N between 60W and 75W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
on either side of the stationary front.

Winds and seas associated with the stationary front will diminish
today as the front weakens. Southwest winds will increase east of
northern Florida on Friday as a cold front approaches the area.
The front will stall from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral on
Saturday, then lift northward Saturday night as a low pressure
system develops northeast of Jacksonville Florida.

$$
Mundell
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