[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N68W to
eastern Cuba near 21N76W. The front will continue to move east,
and reach from 31N62W to Haiti tonight, then it will stall from
30N59W to the Dominican Republic Wed evening before dissipating on
Thu night. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of this
front north of 27N today through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W
to NW winds will continue behind the front through this afternoon.
Seas associated with the front are 12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft
later today and Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N21W to 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 0N to 08N between 09W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure prevails across the basin in the wake of a
cold front currently E of the area. Fresh to strong N to NW winds
continue across the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits
of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. These winds will gradually
diminish through this evening as the ridge weakens. Deep-layer dry
air covers the basin, thus supporting fair weather.

The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Thu night, reach
from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico Fri afternoon and stall
afterwards before dissipating Sat. Fresh to locally strong S winds
are forecast for the western half of the gulf Wed night, ahead of
this front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow the front and
affect the NW waters Thu night and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong N winds are over the NW Caribbean behind a cold
front that extends from eastern Cuba SW to the eastern Gulf of
Honduras. These winds will shift to the far SW Caribbean this
evening, reaching near gale force speeds along Nicaragua offshore
waters. Winds will start to diminish in the SW basin Wed morning
as the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating
Wed night. Mainly fair weather is across the basin being supported
by deep layer dry air. Shallow moisture associated with the front
and middle level diffluence support scattered showers and tstms in
portions of Haiti and the Windward Passage.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the southern Caribbean
will expand to the north-central basin and the Windward Passage
Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period N swell
over the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic will
start to subside today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through
Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for
details.

A strong cold front extending from 31N68W to eastern Cuba near
21N76W will reach from 31N62W to Haiti tonight, and stall from
30N59W to the Dominican Republic Wed evening before dissipating on
Thu night. Gust to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front
N of 24N while gale force SW winds are ahead of the front. Gale
conditions will shift eastward with the front through early Wed.
Afterwards, fresh to near gale force winds N of 27N will gradually
diminish through Wed night. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are
ahead of the front to 62W and N of 22N. Northerly long-period
swell associated with the front will propagate through the
forecast waters through mid-week, then it will begin to subside as
it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area Thu
through Fri night.

Farther east, a 1022 mb high near the Canary Islands continue to
support moderate to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean from 0N to 23N.

$$
Ramos
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