[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N64W to
eastern Cuba. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of
this front north of 27N through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W
to NW winds will continue behind the front through early this
evening. Seas associated with the front are peaking near 20 ft.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04.5N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 04.5N21W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 09N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong N to NW
winds continue across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida. These winds will gradually diminish through this
evening as the ridge weakens. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere east of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 90W.
Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the SE Gulf, 1-3 ft over the
NW Gulf, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next couple of
days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
E of Florida supports fresh to strong northerly winds over the
eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These winds will
gradually diminish through tonight as the ridge weakens.
Southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf on Thu, ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
Mexico Fri afternoon and stall afterwards before dissipating Sat.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a
Dios, Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds and seas in the 5-7 ft
range prevail west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-8 ft, are noted elsewhere east of the front.

Winds over the SW Caribbean along the Nicaragua offshore waters
will reach near gale force by this evening. Winds will start to
diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as the front stalls from
Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central part of the basin and the Windward
Passage Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period
N swell over the NE Caribbean passages will continue to subside
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through
Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for
details.

Elsewhere west of 65W, the strong to gale force winds continue
across much of the waters west of the front, with gentle to
moderate winds east of the front. Seas are in the 10 to 18 ft
over the open waters east of the Bahamas and north of 23N, with
seas in the 6-10 ft range south of 23N and east of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from just
E of Bermuda to the easternmost tip of Cuba will reach from
26N65W to Haiti tonight, and from 24N65W to Dominican Republic on
Wed, then stall over the SE waters on Thu before dissipating on
Thu night. Strong to gale force winds are noted on either side
of the front. A reinforcing cold front will maintain these gale
conditions through Wed, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less
from W to E Wed night into Thu. Long period northerly swell in
the wake of the front will propagate across the forecast waters
and the Caribbean passages through Thu.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 26N38W, then
continues stationary to 25N48W. Near gale to gale force winds
prevail north of 23N between 60W and 65W. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N between 53W and 60W. Fresh
to strong trades are noted south of 20N between 43W and 54W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere south of 23N, with
gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Seas are in the 10-20 ft
range north of 26N between 60W and 65W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere
north of 20N. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range south of 20N.

$$
AL
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