[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N68W to
eastern Cuba near 21N76W. The front will continue to move east,
and reach from 31N62W to Haiti tonight, then it will stall from
30N59W to the Dominican Republic Wed evening before dissipating on
Thu night. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of this
front north of 27N today through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W
to NW winds will continue behind the front through this afternoon.
Seas associated with the front are 12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft
later today and Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N21W to 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 0N to 08N between 09W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure prevails across the basin in the wake of a
cold front currently E of the area. Fresh to strong N to NW winds
continue across the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits
of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. These winds will gradually
diminish through this evening as the ridge weakens. Deep-layer dry
air covers the basin, thus supporting fair weather.

The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Thu night, reach
from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico Fri afternoon and stall
afterwards before dissipating Sat. Fresh to locally strong S winds
are forecast for the western half of the gulf Wed night, ahead of
this front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow the front and
affect the NW waters Thu night and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong N winds are over the NW Caribbean behind a cold
front that extends from eastern Cuba SW to the eastern Gulf of
Honduras. These winds will shift to the far SW Caribbean this
evening, reaching near gale force speeds along Nicaragua offshore
waters. Winds will start to diminish in the SW basin Wed morning
as the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating
Wed night. Mainly fair weather is across the basin being supported
by deep layer dry air. Shallow moisture associated with the front
and middle level diffluence support scattered showers and tstms in
portions of Haiti and the Windward Passage.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the southern Caribbean
will expand to the north-central basin and the Windward Passage
Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period N swell
over the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic will
start to subside today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through
Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for
details.

As of 02/0300 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale
Warning extends from 32N71W to central Cuba near 22N78W.
Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection
along and within 270 nm SE of the front, from 23N-32N between
64W-74W. A Monday evening ASCAT pass shows strong to gale force S
to SW winds in the same area ahead of the front, north of 25N.
Behind the front, the ASCAT data show near gale to gale force W
to NW winds extending to the east coast of Florida from the Keys
to Jacksonville Beach.

The strong cold front will progress eastward across the W
Atlantic, reaching from near 32N66W to the Windward Passage this
afternoon, and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic Wed
afternoon. The front will then stall before dissipating on Thu.
Gale force southerly winds ahead of this front will shift
eastward with the front through early Wed. Gale force W to NW
winds behind the front will diminish to below gale by late this
afternoon. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front
will propagate through the forecast waters through mid-week,
combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell
will begin to subside Thu through Fri night.

Farther east, a 1027 mb high is near 32N51W. A weak cold front
extends from 32N30W to 25N47W, stationary to 25N56W, with no
significant winds or convection. The front will dissipate by
Wed. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean from 06N-22N. A recent altimeter pass shows seas
of 10 to 11 feet from 20N-30N between 20W-25W. Farther west,
seas are likely in the 12 to 15 ft range from 25N-31N between
27W-37W due to residual swell.

$$
Ramos
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