[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Henri is centered near 40.1N 71.2W at 22/0900 UTC or
70 nm SSE of Montauk Point New York moving N at 16 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently 34 ft well
north of the discussion area. Numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center, along with
a nearby band of similar convection elsewhere from 39N to 41N
between 71W and 76W. Henri will move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm over New England this afternoon.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W from 22N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 26W
and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 43W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 35W
and 43W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 55W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 44W
and 56W, with similar convection noted from 14N to 16N between 57W
and 62W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 75W from 20N
southward across the approach to the Windward Passage to north
central Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is
noted over water, however scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted near the tropical wave axis over portions
of northern Colombia and extreme northwestern Venezuela.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 83W, from 20N
southward across Central America near the Costa Rica-Panama border
and into the far eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
16N to 20N between 83W and 90W, with scattered moderate convection
noted from 17N to 19N between 78W and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to 12N35W to 11N44W. The ITCZ continues from 11N44W
to 10N53W, then resumes near 01N56W to near Trinidad. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N
between the coast of Africa and 21W, associated with the next
tropical wave.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico with
a 1017 mb surface high located near 29N92W. Light to gentle winds
are in the northeast and north central Gulf, with moderate to
locally fresh easterly flow elsewhere. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft
range in the northeastern half of the basin, with seas of 4 to 6
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin for the
next several days. Fresh to strong winds will pulse west of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the tropical waves discussed in the section above, high
pressure prevails northeast of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
cover most of the basin, locally strong near the northern coast of
Colombia, and light to moderate in the southwest Caribbean. Seas
are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range, locally to 8 ft near the coast
of colombia, and 2 to 4 ft in the southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate
into next week. Pulses of strong winds are possible offshore
Colombia early today and will develop over much of the rest of the
central Caribbean later today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from the coast of the Carolinas to
near the Georgia-Florida boarder. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted within 150 nm east-southeast of this feature. The Bermuda-
Azores high stretches across the waters from 27N to 30N. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds dominate this area east of 60W, along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. A belt of moderate to fresh trades
dominates from 12N to 24N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, with
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Mon, except for
fresh to possibly locally strong winds at night north of
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical
wave will move across the area by mid-week with fresh to strong
winds ahead of it.

$$
Lewitsky
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