[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Henri has been downgraded to a tropical storm earlier this morning
and is centered near 41.1N 71.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 13 nm E of
Montauk Point New York and moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 26 ft near and E and
S of the storm center. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted across N NJ, SE NY, CT, RI and S MA. Four to
six inches of rain have already fallen across these areas for the
past 6 to 12 hours. Henri will make landfall near RI early this
afternoon and then weaken to a tropical depression over New
England by early Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 21N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 33W and 38W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 19N southward and
moving W near 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 39W and 43W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 20N southward to
Suriname, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present from 10N to 14N between 49W and 61W,
including the Windward Islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from SE Cuba southward
across Jamaica to W Colombia, and moving W near 15 kt. Numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring over the SW
corner of the basin N of E Panama.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 20N southward
across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the E Pacific
Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident across the W central and NW
parts of the basin, including the E coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W through a low pressure system at 13N32W to 12N50W. The
ITCZ then continues from 12N50W to 13N55W, then resumes from
13N58W to near St. Lucia at 13N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is present S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between the
African coast and 28W, and near the low from 09N to 17N between
28W and 33W. Most convection near the ITCZ is associated with the
tropical wave nearby.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge stretches east-southeastward from S Texas across
the N central Gulf to central Florida. Modest convergent winds
near the ridge axis are coupling with upper-level wind shear to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
Florida Panhandle and Keys. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ESE to
SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the SW Gulf; and light to
gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin for the
next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse west
of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the N central and E Caribbean Basin. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the
basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft are seen at
the W basin, while moderate to fresh with locally strong trades
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate
into midweek. Pulses of strong winds will begin today offshore
of Colombia with a period of strong winds developing tonight over
much of the central and portions of the northeast Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large 1022 mb Bermuda high near 32N60W dominates much of the
Atlantic. Convergent S to SW winds N the ridge axis are causing
scattered showers and thunderstorms off the N Florida-Georgia
coast, N of 30N between 75W and 79W. Refer to the Tropical Waves
and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection
across the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft can be seen just S of
the ridge axis, N of 25N between 24W and 75W. Moderate to fresh S
to SW winds are found N of 29N and W of 75W. Gentle to moderate NE
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are near the Canary Islands N of 23N
between the NW African coast and 24W. A belt of moderate to fresh
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist from 12N to 24N between the
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles/Bahamas. Gentle to
moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail across the
rest of the area..

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Mon, except for
fresh to locally strong winds at night north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move
across the area by mid-week with fresh to locally strong winds
ahead of it.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net