[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Henri, at 22/0600 UTC, is near 39.3N
71.0W, or about 215 km to the SSE of Montauk Point in New York,
and about 280 km to the S of Providence in Rhode Island. Henri is
moving N, or 355 degrees, 18 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65
knots with gusts to 80 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 45 nm to 150 nm of the center in the N quadrant.
Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern
New England on Sunday. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

The remnants of GRACE are a 1005 mb low pressure center, that is
inland in Mexico, near 19.5N100W. Precipitation: numerous strong
is from 17N to 19N between 96W and 98W. Precipitation: warming
cloud top temperatures, and weakening but persisting widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, are in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 22N southward.
The wave is moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 440 nm to the east
of the tropical wave from 05N to 16N, and within 200 nm to the
west of the tropical wave from 05N to 17N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 20N
southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
nearby precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough and the
ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180
nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 34W and the
53W/54W tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 20N
southward. The wave is moving W about 15 kt. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 430 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, from 09N to 17N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 20N
southward across Haiti, to NW Venezuela, and to Colombia. The wave
is moving westward about 15 knots. The eastward extension of the
eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 75W
westward beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong is from
08N to 10N between 73W and 75W, and from 07N to 09N between 75W
and 78W at the border of Colombia and Panama. Scattered strong is
at the western edge of Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N
southward across central Panama into the E Pacific Ocean. The wave
is moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is in the east central Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters
from 15N northward from Jamaica westward, in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Similar precipitation is from 14N to 17N between
84W and 90W, in the coastal plains Honduras and Belize, and in
interior and coastal sections of Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 14N27W, to 12N37W, and to 12N44W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N44W, to 10N61W near Trinidad. Precipitation:
scattered strong is from 07N to 12N between 12W and 16W in
interior and coastal sections of Africa. Scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from 04N to 07N between 10W and 20W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 34W and the 53W/54W
tropical wave.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N88W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area, to the north
of the line that extends from Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 21N/22N.

High pressure will dominate the basin for the next several days.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse to the west of the Yucatan
Peninsula this evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong covers the waters from 15N northward from Jamaica
westward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Similar
precipitation is from 14N to 17N between 84W and 90W, in the
coastal plains Honduras and Belize, and in interior and coastal
sections of Guatemala.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N southward from 70W
westward, in trade wind flow.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate into next week.
Pulses of strong winds are possible offshore Colombia early today,
and will develop in much of the rest of the central Caribbean Sea
later today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The base of an upper level trough reaches 30N76W, about 275 nm to
the east of NE Florida. An inland surface trough passes through
South Carolina to south central Georgia. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 30N to 32N between 77W and
81W.

An upper level trough passes through 31N30W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N46W, to a second upper
level cyclonic center that is near 25N66W, to the Mona Passage.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between 30W and 55W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N60W. A 1023 mb high
pressure center is near 35N20W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward, away from the
northernmost points of the tropical waves, from 80W eastward.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail east and across the
Bahamas through Monday, except for fresh to possibly locally
strong winds at night, to the north of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move
across the area by mid-week, with fresh to strong winds ahead of
it.

$$
MT
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