[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 26.8N 85.3W at 15/2100 UTC
or 170 nm WSW of Tampa Florida moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection prevails from 22N to 30N between 80W and 86W. A
turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and
northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the
western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

The now Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.0N 67.3W
at 15/2100 UTC or 170 nm ESE of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic
moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 13N to
22N between 63W and 70W. A generally west-northwestward motion
is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace
will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

A small but well-defined 1017 mb low pressure center is about 180
miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection
is from 31N-34N between 61W-64W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development, and if these development
trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while
the low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5
kt, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone
formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of
this system, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for
that island later tonight. This system has a high chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 19N
southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevail from 06N-09N between 26W-29W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 25N southward,
moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the vicinity of the wave between 71W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Senegal
near 16N17W to 06N27W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from 08N36W
to 08N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N45W to
08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within
120 nm south of both boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fred.

Light to gentle easterly winds prevails across the basin west of
87W. Scattered showers are noted over the Bay of Campeche mainly
south of 23N. Sea heights in the area range between 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fred will move to 27.8N 86.0W
Mon morning, 29.5N 86.1W Mon afternoon, inland to 31.3N 86.0W Tue
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
33.3N 85.5W Tue afternoon, inland to 35.8N 84.3W Wed morning, and
dissipate Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Tropical
Depression Grace and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

The easternmost part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends across the south central Caribbean along 10N, enhancing
convection mainly south of 12N between 74W-83W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the western half of
the basin, with seas ranging between 2-4 ft.

Tropical Depression Grace will move to 17.6N 68.8W Mon morning,
inland to 18.2N 71.0W Mon afternoon, 19.2N 73.2W Tue morning,
inland to 20.2N 75.8W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 78.7W Wed morning, and
22.1N 81.8W Wed afternoon. Grace will strengthen to a tropical
storm over 24.0N 87.0W by Thu afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the area of interest
near Bermuda and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 33N72W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh winds south of 25N, while light to gentle winds prevail
north of 25N. Seas across the basin range between 3-6 ft.

Tropical Depression Grace will move to 17.6N 68.8W Mon morning,
inland to 18.2N 71.0W Mon afternoon, 19.2N 73.2W Tue morning,
inland to 20.2N 75.8W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 78.7W Wed morning, and
22.1N 81.8W Wed afternoon. Grace will strengthen to a tropical
storm over 24.0N 87.0W by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure
will persist across the area through the period.

$$
ERA
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