[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 27.3N 85.9W at 16/0300 UTC
or 175 nm S of Panama City, Florida moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection
prevails from 26N to 30N between 83W and 86W. Scattered moderate
convection is over and offshore of the SW Florida Peninsula from
25N to 27N between 81W and 83W. Seas are 7-12 ft in the NE Gulf
of Mexico. A turn toward the north is expected today. On the
forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern
and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in
the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.3N 68.6W at 16/0300
UTC or 105 nm SE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic moving W at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N
between 66W and 72W, including the Mona Passage. A generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday,
near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of
west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

At 16/0300 UTC, the first advisory was issued on Tropical
Depression Eight, centered at 33.2N 62.7W or 115 nm ENE of
Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The depression is
moving S at 6 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N to 33N
between 61W and 64W. A slow clockwise turn toward the west is
anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a
continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda
during the next few days. Slow strengthening is forecast and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 22N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevail from 05N-08N between 27W-30W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted
at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 20N southward, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and
Mauritania near 16N16W to 12N23W to 06N44W. The ITCZ is analyzed
from 07N47W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is near the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 20W
and 27W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north and south of
the remaining sections of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Fred.

Moderate S winds were detected by scatterometer in the SE Gulf. Light
to gentle NE to E winds prevail across the basin west of 88W. At
0300 UTC, an outflow boundary was located just off the Texas coast
in the NW Gulf. Scattered showers are located near this outflow
boundary. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Gulf in NE to E swell
from Tropical Storm Fred. 3-5 ft seas are analyzed in the SE
Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and in the north-central
Gulf west of 90W. Seas are 3 ft or less in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, Fred will move to 28.6N 86.2W Mon morning with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 30.2N 86.1W Mon
evening and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
32.3N 85.7W Tue morning. Fred will dissipate inland Wed morning.
Tropical Depression Grace over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move near or over west-central Cuba on Wed and reach
the far southeastern Gulf Wed night. Grace is forecast to
intensify to a tropical storm as it moves across the central gulf
Thu through Fri and western Gulf Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Grace.

The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades west
of 70W, pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. East of 70W
and outside of the wind field of Tropical Depression Grace,
E to SE winds are mainly moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft east of 72W and
less than 3 ft west of 72W.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Grace will maintain
intensity as it moves to near 17.7N 70.3W Mon morning, to near
18.7N 72.8W Mon evening, to near 19.5N 75.3W Tue morning, to near
20.4N 78.1W Tue evening, to near 21.2N 81.0W Wed morning, and
inland western Cuba near 22.2N 84.0W Wed evening. Grace will
strengthen to a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico near 23.5N
89.0W late Thu. Trade winds will increase to fresh to strong
speeds over the central Caribbean beginning on Wed and through
late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Depression Eight.

Surface ridging and a weak pressure gradient prevails across the
tropical Atlantic. Mainly moderate trades are pulsing to fresh
near the coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
impacting the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos. Light winds are north of 24N between 31W and 64W.
Gentle to moderate trades are south of 24N in the remainder of the
basin. Seas are 5-7 ft near Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic south of 22N and east of 65W. Seas are 3-5 ft near the
Lesser Antilles, and 3-6 ft in the remainder of the discussion
waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Eight will move
to near 32.4N 62.8W Mon morning, then strengthen to a tropical
storm near 31.5N 63.3W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 35
kt gusts 45 kt. It will move to near 31.1N 64.0W Tue morning, to
near 31.0N 64.9W Tue evening, to near near 31.0N 66.1W Wed morning
with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, and to near
31.2N 67.4W Wed evening. Tropical Storm Eight will change little
in intensity as it moves to just north of the area near 32.0N
68.5W late Thu. Otherwise, high pressure will persist across the
area through the period.

$$
Mahoney
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