[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FRED has formed as a Tropical Storm, again, in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The center of Tropical Storm Fred, at 15/1800 UTC, is
near 26.2N 85.2W. This position is about 330 km/180 nm to the SW
of Tampa in Florida, and about 515 km/278 nm to the SSE of
Pensacola in Florida. FRED is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
The center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make landfall in the western
Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon or on Monday night.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 160 nm of the center in
the E semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for
more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Grace, at 15/1800 UTC, is near is
over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 17.3N 66.8W. This position is
about 90 km/48 nm to the SSW of San Juan in Puerto Rico, and about
355 km/192 nm to the ESE of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic. GRACE is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 14
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
GRACE remains disorganized, while moving just to the south of
Puerto Rico. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 300 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for
more details.

A small but well-defined 1017 mb low pressure center is about 175
miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 46W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward between 46W
and 65W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some
development of this low pressure center during the next couple of
days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form, while
the center moves slowly to the south or south-southwest about 5
mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. The upper level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation,
by Tuesday. Please, monitor the progress of this weather feature,
during the next few days, if you are in Bermuda. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: most if not all the nearby precipitation is more
related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: most if not all of the nearby precipitation is
more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W,
from 25N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm to
the east of the northernmost parts of the tropical wave, from 24N
to 27N between 67W and 74W. Scattered strong is in the SW part of
the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 13N between 76W and 79W. Isolated
moderate is from 13N to 18N between 70W and 77W.

A tropical wave is inland, from the Yucatan Peninsula southward,
along 90W/91W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 24N southward from 88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 13N20W, to 08N27W, to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N37W, to 08N42W, and to 06N52W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough, and within 240 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough, from the 26W/27W tropical wave eastward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 60 nm to the north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ, between the 26W/27W tropical wave and the
42W/43W tropical wave. Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between the
42W/43W tropical wave and 54W, and elsewhere from 10N southward
between 55W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Tropical Storm FRED is in the Gulf of Mexico, near
26.2N 85.2W. This position is about 330 km/180 nm to the SW of
Tampa in Florida, and about 515 km/278 nm to the SSE of Pensacola
in Florida. FRED is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 10 knots.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 160 nm of the center in
the E semicircle.

A tropical wave is inland, from the Yucatan Peninsula southward,
along 90W/91W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is near the NE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 24N southward from 88W in the Gulf of
Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, with more isolated moderate to locally strong
precipitation in that area.

Tropical Storm Fred was near 26.1N 84.9W 1008 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Fred will move to 27.4N 85.8W this evening, 28.9N 86.5W Mon
morning, inland to 30.5N 86.5W Mon evening. Fred is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression near 32.5N 86.4W Tue morning,
inland to 34.7N 85.7W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The easternmost part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
passes through Panama near 07N81W, just to the north of the border
of Colombia and Panama, to 10N74W in Colombia. Precipitation:
scattered strong is in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea from 10N
to 13N between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
13N southward from the 74W/75W tropical wave westward.

An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W,
from 25N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
Scattered strong is in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea from 10N
to 13N between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate is from 13N to 18N
between 70W and 77W.

Tropical Storm Grace was near 17.2N 66.0W 1010 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Grace will move to 17.8N 67.8W this evening, inland to 18.5N 69.7W
Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
19.3N 71.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near
20.3N 74.0W Tue morning, 21.3N 76.6W Tue evening, and inland to
22.3N 79.4W Wed morning. Grace will change little in intensity as
it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 23.9N 82.5W late Wed
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W,
from 25N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm to
the east of the northernmost parts of the tropical wave, from 24N
to 27N between 67W and 74W.

A small but well-defined 1017 mb low pressure center is about 175
miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 46W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward between 46W
and 65W. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours is medium.

Tropical Storm Grace near 17.2N 66.0W 1010 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Grace
will move to 17.8N 67.8W this evening, inland to 18.5N 69.7W Mon
morning. Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near
19.3N 71.7W Mon evening, then strengthen to a tropical storm near
20.3N 74.0W Tue morning, 21.3N 76.6W Tue evening, and inland to
22.3N 79.4W Wed morning. Grace will change little in intensity as
it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Wed night.
Otherwise, high pressure will persist across the area through the
period.

$$
mt
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