[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070946
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W south of 18N, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 10.5N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 22W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 15N between 37W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is
within 60 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Most of the active convection associated
to this wave is over the eastern north Pacific waters. This wave
and the wave to its east will merge today. The merged waves will
have the potential to help with tropical cyclone development over
the eastern north Pacific waters next week. Please see the
eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more on
tropical cyclone potential.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 20N17W to
low pres near 10.5N126W to low pres near 13N39W to 08N55W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
modreate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N
between 30W and 37W, and from 07N to 13N between 43W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front-to-warm front extends
southwestward, from a 1017 mb SE Georgia low pressure center, to
SE Louisiana, and to east Texas. Precipitation: convective debris
clouds, and remaining isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the
area that is from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is between the western edge of the Bahamas and the west
coast of Florida, including inland in Florida.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, from 24N southward from 90W westward. Precipitation:
convective debris clouds, and remaining isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the area that is from 27N southward from 90W
westward. The northern Yucatan Peninsula upper level cyclonic
circulation center, from 24 hours ago, has moved northwestward to
23N92W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is inland, in
the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula,
into the Bay of Campeche, every night through Tuesday night, in
association with a diurnal trough. A weak surface ridge along
26N/27N will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the
N of the central coastal area of Honduras. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 75W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from Jamaica westward.

A tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is in
Colombia, within 140 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 07N
to 10N. Scattered strong is in Venezuela, from 140 nm to 270 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, from 08.5N to 10N between the
Colombia/Venezuela border and Lake Maracaibo. The easternmost
point of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough reaches 10N73W.

A tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 16N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is
about 150 nm to the NW of the northernmost part of the tropical
wave. The tropical wave is moving through the Central America,
from eastern Honduras to eastern Nicaragua, beyond Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and
the tropical wave from 10N to 12N. Isolated moderate is at the
northern edge of the tropical wave, from 16N to 18N between 83W
and 85W. The monsoon trough is along 08.5N/10N between 73W in
Colombia and Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. The comparatively
strongest winds will be near the coast of NE Colombia and NW
Venezuela. The winds will diminish significantly across most of
the basin from Sunday through Monday. Expect fresh east winds in
the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime
hours, each day through Saturday night. Fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this
weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N57W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
northward between 50W and 60W. One surface trough is along 34N53W
29N52W 25N51W. A second surface trough is along 56W/57W from 22N
to 27N. A third surface trough is along 35N55W 32N57W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward between 47W
and 62W.

Fresh winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in the
approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend.
The Atlantic Ocean surface ridge, that is associated with the
Bermuda-to-Azores high, will persist with well to the N of the
area for the next several days. A strong tropical wave with active
weather is expected to enter the SE waters early on Tuesday, and
reach 68W on Wednesday morning.

$$
AL
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