[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W south of 18N, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 10.5N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 22W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 15N between 37W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is
within 60 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Most of the active convection associated
to this wave is over the eastern north Pacific waters. This wave
and the wave to its east will merge today. The merged waves will
have the potential to help with tropical cyclone development over
the eastern north Pacific waters next week. Please see the
eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more on
tropical cyclone potential.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 20N17W to
low pres near 10.5N26W to low pres near 13N39W to 08N55W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N
between 30W and 37W, and from 07N to 13N between 43W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, with ridge axis
along 26N/27N. Light to gentle winds prevail along, and to the
north of, the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south
of the ridge axis. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of the
Yucatan peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in
association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge
along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several
days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to locally strong
trades prevail over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through tonight, strongest near the coast of NE
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds will then diminish significantly
across most of the basin Sun through Mon. Expect fresh east winds
in the Gulf of Honduras late this afternoon through the nighttime
hours. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during
the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from from 30N56W to 23N56W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the trough axis from
28N to 30N. Another surface trough extends from 31N52W to 25N51W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this trough. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the subtropical waters north
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 23N, with
moderate to fresh winds between 20N and 23N. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range west of 60W, and 4-6 ft east of 60W.

Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends
across the waters from the coast of Africa to near 55W. Moderate
to fresh tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon
trough. Two low pressure centers are embedded within this active
monsoon trough. One is along the intersection of a tropical wave
axis and the monsoon trough near 10.5N26W, and the other is near
13N39W drifting slowly westward. These lows are being monitored
for potential tropical cyclone development. Please see the latest
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at
night through the weekend. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge
associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis
well N of the area for the next several days. A tropical wave with
active weather is expected to enter the SE waters early Tue and
reach the SE Bahamas Wed.

$$
AL
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