[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from the Cabo
Verde Islands southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1011 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 10N.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 07N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to
the east of the tropical wave from 13N to 15N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from
15N to 17N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: numerous
strong is in Colombia, within 140 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, from 07N to 10N. Scattered strong is in Venezuela, from 140
nm to 270 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 08.5N to 10N
between the Colombia/Venezuela border and Lake Maracaibo. The
easternmost point of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
reaches 10N73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is about 150 nm to the NW of the northernmost
part of the tropical wave. The tropical wave is moving through
the Central America, from eastern Honduras to eastern Nicaragua,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and
the tropical wave from 10N to 12N. Isolated moderate is at the
northern edge of the tropical wave, from 16N to 18N between 83W
and 85W. The monsoon trough is along 08.5N/10N between 73W in
Colombia and Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 14N32W, to 12N45W, 10N47W, to 08N54W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within a radius of 120 nm of 11N23W, and from 06N to 09N between
21W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm
on either side of the monsoon trough between 40W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front-to-warm front extends
southwestward, from a 1017 mb SE Georgia low pressure center, to
SE Louisiana, and to east Texas. Precipitation: convective debris
clouds, and remaining isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the
area that is from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is between the western edge of the Bahamas and the west
coast of Florida, including inland in Florida.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, from 24N southward from 90W westward. Precipitation:
convective debris clouds, and remaining isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the area that is from 27N southward from 90W
westward. The northern Yucatan Peninsula upper level cyclonic
circulation center, from 24 hours ago, has moved northwestward to
23N92W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is inland, in
the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula,
into the Bay of Campeche, every night through Tuesday night, in
association with a diurnal trough. A weak surface ridge along
26N/27N will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the
N of the central coastal area of Honduras. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 75W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from Jamaica westward.

A tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is in
Colombia, within 140 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 07N
to 10N. Scattered strong is in Venezuela, from 140 nm to 270 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, from 08.5N to 10N between the
Colombia/Venezuela border and Lake Maracaibo. The easternmost
point of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough reaches 10N73W.

A tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 16N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is
about 150 nm to the NW of the northernmost part of the tropical
wave. The tropical wave is moving through the Central America,
from eastern Honduras to eastern Nicaragua, beyond Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and
the tropical wave from 10N to 12N. Isolated moderate is at the
northern edge of the tropical wave, from 16N to 18N between 83W
and 85W. The monsoon trough is along 08.5N/10N between 73W in
Colombia and Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. The comparatively
strongest winds will be near the coast of NE Colombia and NW
Venezuela. The winds will diminish significantly across most of
the basin from Sunday through Monday. Expect fresh east winds in
the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime
hours, each day through Saturday night. Fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this
weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N57W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
northward between 50W and 60W. One surface trough is along 34N53W
29N52W 25N51W. A second surface trough is along 56W/57W from 22N
to 27N. A third surface trough is along 35N55W 32N57W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward between 47W
and 62W.

Fresh winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in the
approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend.
The Atlantic Ocean surface ridge, that is associated with the
Bermuda-to-Azores high, will persist with well to the N of the
area for the next several days. A strong tropical wave with active
weather is expected to enter the SE waters early on Tuesday, and
reach 68W on Wednesday morning.

$$
mt/al
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