[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 18N with axis near 20W, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated
with this wave.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 36W, moving
W at 10 to 15 knots. There is no significant convection associated
with this wave.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 55W, moving
W at 10 to 15 knots. There is no significant convection associated
with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 74W S
of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. There is no convection
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is crossing Central America. Its axis is near 83W
and extends S from 16N. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are
within 180 nm off the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W to a 1011 mb low pressure
centered near 10N24W to 13N40W to 07N57W. Aside the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is in the vicinity of the low from 04N to 14N
between 21W and 33W. Scattered showers and tstms are elsewhere
from 07N to 14N between 38W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough along the Mississippi valley
continue to support a stationary front that extends from the
Florida Big Bend to the SE Louisiana offshore waters near 28N90W
to the area of Houston, Texas. With deep layer moisture in this
region, scattered showers and isolated tstms remain in the
vicinity of the front mainly N of 26N. A surface trough is
emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche along
with heavy showers and tstms, and moderate to fresh NE winds.
Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle
variable winds with seas to 3 ft.

The front will continue to weaken and is forecast to dissipate
Sat just north of the area. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse
off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night
through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere,
a weak surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters
over the next several days producing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low and abundant moisture as seen in microwave
satellite imagery, support scattered showers and tstms along Cuba
and western Jamaica adjacent waters while a tropical wave crossing
Central America supports similar convection over the SW basin.
Except for some showers observed over western Hispaniola, the Mona
Passage and the central portion of the Lesser Antilles, the
remainder Caribbean experiences fair weather under middle-level
dry air subsidence. Low level microwave satellite imagery confirms
patches of dry air over both the central and eastern basin,
supporting these favorable conditions.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Sat night, strongest near the coast of
NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds will then diminish significantly
across most of the basin Sun through Mon. Expect fresh east winds
in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime
hours, each day through Sat night. Fresh NE winds are expected in
the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend.
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are in the central and eastern Atlantic,
however with no significant convection. See tropical waves section
for further details. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late
this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. There is a medium
chance of cyclogenesis within the next 5 days.

The Azores high and associated ridge dominates the remainder
Atlantic waters N of 22N. There is no significant weather in this
region, except for isolated showers and tstms over the NE Florida
adjacent waters associated with the stationary front that extends
from the Florida Big Bend to Houston, Texas.

Fresh winds will pulse at night north of Hispaniola, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage, through the weekend.
Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-
Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for the next
several days. A strong tropical wave with active weather is
expected to enter the SE waters early Tue and reach 68W Wed
morning.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net