[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This is
associated with the tropical wave interacting with a broader
surface trough. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 5 days. Please read the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 19W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 16N and E of 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N, where the wave intersects the monsoon
trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 51W and 55W near the coast of
Suriname and Guyana.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant deep convection is
noted with the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted south of 15N to the coast of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama between 79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to a 1011 mb low pressure
Centered near 10.2N23.8W to 13N40W to 08N53W. Aside convection
noted within the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 20W
and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N
between 35W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through NE Florida, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extend
towards the SW and continue along the boundary through the
northern Gulf coast to NE Texas. Light to gentle winds are across
noted in the northern Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds across
the southern Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the far NE
Gulf as well as to the west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere,
seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

In the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today while
lifting northward, and dissipate tonight just north of the area.
Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in
association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge
along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several
days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north
central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the Windward Passage extending SW to
northern coast of Honduras.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean through Sat night near the coast of NE
Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf
of Honduras from
late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through Sat
night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during
the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the subtropical waters north of 20N,
anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 36N41W.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across these
waters. Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough
extends across the waters east of 51W. Moderate to locally fresh
NE tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to
moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas
over the deep tropics are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at
night through the weekend. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge
associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis
well N of the area for the next several days.

$$
Torres
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