[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 24W from 23N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N to
14N between 20W and 25W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 38W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N to
09N between 36W and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 52W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this
time.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 71W from 15N
southward across western Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt. No
convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the south-central Bay of Campeche
along 93W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection
is noted in the Bay of Campeche, however scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted inland over Mexico near the
Chivela Pass.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 09N47W. Along the monsoon trough, a 1014 mb low pressure center is
analyzed at 12N28W. In addition to the convection described in the
tropical waves section, an area of scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough and near the low pressure center
from 12N to 15N between 27W and 31W. Fresh SW to WSW winds are
noted south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 09N between 30W and
38W. No segments of the ITCZ are currently analyzed.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is located just inland along the northern Gulf
coast, with no significant impacts offshore. Upper-level
divergence is supporting scattered showers in the NE Gulf.
The subtropical ridge extends WSW across the central Gulf,
supporting light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Seas are 1 to 3 ft
across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain along the
northern Gulf Coast through Fri. Scattered moderate convection
will continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico this week along and
south of the front. Similar activity prevails east of 86W and
will continue through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly
to westerly winds will prevail south of the front in the
northeastern and north-central Gulf through Wed. Moderate to fresh
NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the
Bay of Campeche every night through Sun night, in association with
a diurnal trough. Elsewhere south of the front, a surface ridge
will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing
gentle to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is supporting scattered showers between Cuba
and Jamaica, and within the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is
noted inland over N Colombia. The pressure gradient in the south-central
Caribbean has evidently weakened, as the latest scatterometer and
surface data shows moderate to locally fresh trades in this area.
Fresh trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the
basin, trades are gentle to moderate. Seas throughout the
Caribbean are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high combined with the Colombian
low will support pulsing fresh to locally strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the end of the week. Expect fresh
to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again
Friday evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical high continues to dominate the Atlantic waters. A
weak surface trough is analyzed from 26N48W to 22N48W. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail, turning anticyclonically around a ridge
axis extending SW through the N Bahamas. North of 27N and west of
70W, fresh to strong S winds are analyzed ahead of a stationary frontal
boundary along the southeast coast of the United States. In the
eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are noted within 240 nm of the
coast of Western Sahara. Seas are 3-6 ft in the W Atlantic, and
generally 5-7 ft over the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong S to SW winds and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore NE
Florida through Wed to the south of a stationary front, which will
linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night.
Otherwise, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores
high, that currently extends from 31N65W to near Havana Cuba, will
persist for the next several days.

$$
Mahoney
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