[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 22W/23W from 23N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 12N to 16N between 18W and 22W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 36W/37W from 18N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
described in the section below.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 50W from 18N
southward, moving quickly W at 20 to 25 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 69W from 15N
southward to across the A-B-C Islands and western Venezuela,
moving quickly W at around 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted over water, however scattered thunderstorms have developed
over northern Venezuela near the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is near the eastern Bay of Campeche along the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula or along 91W/92W from 20N
southward. No significant convection is noted over water, however
scattered thunderstorms have developed over the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the Mauritania-Senegal border near
17N17W through 1010 mb low pressure near 13.5N23W to 09N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 23W
and 28W, from 09N to 12N between 29W and 32W, and within 150 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 32W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the SW Louisiana coastal waters to
across the Texas coastal waters, south of a frontal boundary
located along or just inland of the U.S. Gulf coast states.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are being triggered by these
features in the Gulf north of 25N, except north of 24N in the
eastern Gulf. Locally moderate to fresh winds and seas up to 4 ft
are near stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, a surface ridge
extending west-southwestward across the central Gulf is supporting
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the remainder
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a front will remain nearly stationary along the
northern Gulf Coast, or over the northern Gulf, through Fri.
Expect scattered thunderstorms to continue over the northern Gulf
of Mexico this week, near and just south of the front. Moderate to
locally fresh southwesterly to westerly winds will prevail south
of the front in the northeastern and north-central Gulf through
Wed. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Sun night,
in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere south of the
front, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several
days producing gentle to moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW corner
of the Caribbean Basin, including across much of Central America
as well as across portions of Colombia. An upper-level low just
northeast of Cuba combined with daytime heating is supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Jamaica, Cuba,
and Hispaniola.

Tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over N Colombia and Venezuela is creating moderate to
fresh, locally strong, trade winds, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft
over the S central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3
to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high combined with the Colombian
low will support fresh to locally strong winds over the south-
central Caribbean through the remainder of the week. Expect fresh
to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again
Friday evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms north of eastern Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Leeward
Islands. Convergent SE winds southeast of a frontal boundary over
the Georgia-S Carolina coast are coupling with divergent winds
aloft to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms near and east
of the Georgia and Florida coast, and over the western Bahamas.
Fresh to strong winds and seas up to 6 ft are noted north of 28N
between 76W and 80W.

The Atlantic ridge axis extends west-southwestward from 1032 mb
high pressure north of the area near 36N41W to across Bermuda and
the Florida Peninsula. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft are present north of 25N between 48W and just east of the
Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are found from 10N to 25N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles.
Similar winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident north of the
monsoon trough between the African coast and 48W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between 20W and
40W, with seas of 6 to 10 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong S to SW winds and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore NE
Florida through Wed to the south of a stationary front, which will
linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night.
Otherwise, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores
high, that currently extends from 31N65W to near Havana Cuba, will
persist for the next several days.

$$
Lewitsky
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