[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W from 23N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N to
16N between 23W and 31W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 39W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N
to 09N between 38W and 45W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 53W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this
time.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 72W from 15N
southward across western Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered showers are noted over the portion of the wave that
extends over land at this time.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the south-central Bay of Campeche
along 94W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection
is noted in the Bay of Campeche, however scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted inland over Mexico near the
Chivela Pass.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to
09N48W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical
waves section above, scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of
the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is located just inland along the northern Gulf
coast. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of
the trough mainly north of 28N and west of 89W. Upper-level
divergence is supporting scattered moderate convection across the
eastern half of the basin. The subtropical ridge extends WSW
across the central Gulf, supporting light to gentle anticyclonic
flow. Seas range between 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain along the
northern Gulf Coast through Fri. Scattered moderate convection
will continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico this week along and
south of the front. Similar activity prevails north of 27N and
east of 88W and will continue through today. Gentle to moderate
westerly winds will prevail south of the front in the northeastern
and north-central Gulf today. Moderate to fresh E winds will
pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every
night through Sun night, in association with a diurnal trough.
Elsewhere south of the front, a surface ridge will dominate the
Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A broad upper-level low is supporting scattered showers between
Cuba and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage. Scattered showers
associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is noted inland
over N Colombia. The pressure gradient in the south-central
Caribbean has evidently weakened, as the latest scatterometer and
surface data depict moderate to fresh trades in this area.
Elsewhere in the basin, trades are gentle to moderate. Seas
throughout the Caribbean are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high combined with lower pressures
over northern Colombia will support pulsing fresh to locally
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the end of
the week. Expect fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras on
Friday evening. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The subtropical high continues to dominate the Atlantic waters. A
weak surface trough is analyzed from 26N48W to 23N49W. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail, turning anticyclonically around a ridge
axis extending SW through the N Bahamas. North of 27N and west of
70W, fresh S winds are analyzed ahead of a stationary frontal
boundary along the southeast coast of the United States. In the
eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are noted within 240 nm of the
coast of Western Sahara. Seas are 3-6 ft in the W Atlantic, and
generally 5-7 ft over the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong S to SW winds and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue offshore NE
Florida today to the south of a stationary front, which will
linger along the U.S. East Coast for the rest of the week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to
the Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night. Otherwise, a
surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist
for the next several days.

$$
ERA
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