[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia near
06N10W  to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N34W to
00N48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted from 03S-06N between 11W-32W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted about 360 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W-
51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level anti-cyclone is centered over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. This is producing subsidence and dry air over the eastern
and central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high
pressure across the northern Gulf coast into central Louisiana.
A weak stationary front is analyzed west of the ridge, along the
South Texas coast, passing through Corpus Christi and
Brownsville.  An area of low pressure is noted north of Corpus
Christi near 28N97W. Scattered moderate and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring from 25N to 29N and W of 90W.
Persistent areas of smoke were noted on satellite imagery across
much of the western Gulf, west of 90W. This smoke is limiting
visibility in some areas, and originates from agricultural and
forest fires over southern Mexico. Platform observations are
also showing areas of fog in the northwest and north-central
Gulf, with low visibility reported. Moderate to fresh winds are
active off the northern and western coast of Yucatan. Light and
variable breezes are evident over the far northeast Gulf, close
to the high pressure. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
evident elsewhere, except within the thunderstorms off the Texas
coast, where gusty winds are possible. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over
the western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal stationary front will remain over
the  western Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm
front late Sat into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected near the front. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in
the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh
southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic,
across Hispaniola, and into the south-central Caribbean.
Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of this trough is
supporting scattered showers over the southeast Caribbean,
mainly along and east of a line from the ABC Islands northeast
to St. Kitts, although additional isolated showers are west of
that line, to the south of Puerto Rico. Dry, subsident northerly
flow aloft is evident elsewhere, between the trough and an upper
ridge centered over southern Mexico. This is suppressing any
showers or thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin.
Scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E to SE
winds from just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras to northern
Belize. These winds are likely still occurring. Generally
moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere, except up to 5 ft
south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds are
Expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the next
several  nights. Gentle to moderate winds will continue
elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to
fresh across most of the Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge is analyzed north of 20N, anchored by 1022
mb  high pressure near 29N43W. An area of moderate to fresh NE
to E winds are evident from 04N-20N between 20W to the Lesser
Antilles. But elsewhere this pattern is supporting gentle
breezes north of 20N, except for moderate S to SW winds off
Florida, and moderate trades south of 20N. Seas are generally 3
to 5 ft west of 35W. An upper trough reaches from the north
central Atlantic through 30N55W to Haiti. Divergence aloft east
of this trough is supporting a few showers within 120 nm to the
southeast of this upper trough.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front
will  enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late
tonight into early Sat, then shift east of the forecast area and
weaken on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the
front on Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will
persist east of the area early next week, leading to moderate
southerly winds east of Florida.

$$
MTorres
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