[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1910 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 13N19W. The ITCZ continues from 13N19W to 01N31W to 01N49W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
01N-07N between 07W-24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 24W and 35W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
35W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure at 1019 mb is centered in the northeast Gulf near
27N86W. A pronounced surface trough is analyzed in the western
Gulf from 26N93W to 20N96W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible within the vicinity of the trough. A cold front
extends from the Georgia/Florida border to across the Florida
panhandle where it continues west-northwest. A 1013 mb low
pressure is over coastal Texas near 28N97W. A stationary front
extends southeast-south into the west-central Gulf near 22N97W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the front,
mainly within 60 nm of shore and inland, from the Florida
Panhandle westward. Also, patchy to areas of smoke remain possible
from the Yucatan Peninsula to across the southwest Gulf due to
ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and
Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may occasionally reduce
visibilities. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are noted near the high center, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere east of the trough along with seas of 3-6 ft,
locally to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the
surface trough to the coast of eastern Mexico.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain over the western
Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm front late Sat
into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near
the front. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the southwest
Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly
return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging remains north of the basin with 1012 mb low
pressure near the border of northern Colombia/Venezuela. A
surface trough is analyzed from just east-southeast of the Anegada
Passage southwest to 11N67W. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible across the eastern Caribbean with mid-to-upper level
southwesterly flow advecting plentiful moisture from the deep
tropics to across the area. Patchy to areas of smoke are possible
in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to
ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This
smoke and associated haze may reduce visibilities. Mainly gentle
to moderate trades prevail across the basin, locally fresh from
15N-18N. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and mainly 3-6
ft elsewhere across the basin, locally to 7 ft south of Hispaniola
and near the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh E-SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to strong
Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens
between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the Gulf of
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across
the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of
the Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure near 28N62W extends southwest-west to across south
Florida. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a trough from near
31N77W to near Jupiter, Florida with scattered showers ahead of it.
A cold front is just west-northwest of the area from near coastal
Georgia to across the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh SW
winds are noted north of 27N and west of 65W, locally fresh to
strong along 31N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail from
22N-27N, with moderate trades south of 22N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range west of 65W to the Bahamas, highest north of 27N and south
of 22N.

To the east, 1022 mb high pressure is located near 30N44W. A ridge
axis extends from 29N45W through the high to 27N65W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N. with moderate to
locally fresh trades south of 24N across the open waters of the
central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range across this same area.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front
will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight
into early Sat, then shift east of the forecast area and weaken
on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on
Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist east of
the area early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east
of Florida.

$$
Lewitsky
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