[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to
03N27W to 02N42W to 01S48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted from 00N-04N between 11W-16W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 00N-06N
between 24W-35W, and from 00N-08N between 46W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level anti-cyclone is centered over the central Gulf of
Mexico. This is producing subsidence and dry air over the eastern
and central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from 1018 mb high
pressure west of Tampa Bay west-northwestward across the northern
Gulf coast into central Louisiana. A weak stationary front is
analyzed west of the ridge, along the Texas coast, passing through
Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong thunderstorms are occurring within 60 nm of the coast of
central and south Texas. Some of the storms are producing frequent
lightning and gusty winds. Persistent areas of smoke were noted
on earlier satellite imagery across much of the western Gulf, west
of 90W. This smoke is limiting visibility in some areas, and
originates from agricultural and forest fires over southern
Mexico. Platform observations are also showing areas of fog in the
northwest and north-central Gulf, with visibility reported to be
as low as 1.25 miles in some areas in a combination of fog and
smoke. Moderate to fresh winds are active off the northern and
western coast of Yucatan. Light and variable breezes are evident
over the far northeast Gulf, close to the high pressure. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere, except within the
thunderstorms off the Texas coast, where gusty winds are
occurring. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over the western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft
over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will produce thunderstorms
near the Texas coast this morning, and again late tonight through
Sat. By early Sat, a cold front will extend from northern Florida
to the coast of southern Texas and NE Mexico. The front will then
move N as a weak warm front later in the weekend. Areas of smoke
and haze are likely to continue today over much of the western
Gulf of Mexico, reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles in some areas.
Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week over
much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic,
across Hispaniola, and into the south-central Caribbean. Divergent
flow aloft on the southeast side of this trough is supporting
scattered showers over the southeast Caribbean, mainly along and
east of a line from Curacao to St. Kitts, although additional
isolated showers are west of that line, to the south of Puerto
Rico. Dry, subsident northerly flow aloft is evident elsewhere,
between the trough and an upper ridge centered over southern
Mexico. This is suppressing any showers or thunderstorms elsewhere
across the basin, except for localized thunderstorms just south of
Haiti. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to
strong E to SE winds from just north of the Bay Islands of
Honduras to northern Belize. These winds are likely still
occurring. Fresh NE winds were noted earlier in the northern
Windward Passage, but generally moderate trade winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 3 to 4
ft elsewhere, except up to 5 ft south of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds are
expected to continue to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the
next several nights. Gentle to moderate winds will continue
elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh
across most of the Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge is analyzed north of 20N and west of 35W,
anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near 29N63W. An area of
moderate to fresh E winds are evident north of Hispaniola and near
the approaches to the Windward Passage. But elsewhere this
pattern is supporting gentle breezes north of 20N, except for
moderate S to SW winds off Florida, and moderate trades south of
20N. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft west of 35W. An upper trough
reaches from the north central Atlantic through 30N55W to Haiti.
Divergence aloft east of this trough is supporting a few showers
within 120 nm to the southeast of this upper trough.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front
will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight
into early Sat, then weaken and shift east of 65W on Sun. Fresh
winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on Saturday. In
the wake of the front, high pressure will persist over the central
Atlantic early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east
of Florida.

$$
Hagen
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