[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N18W, to 03N20W to 02N26W, to 01N40W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the coast of
Africa between 07W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 07N southward from 50W eastward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the
area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the area of NE Florida near its
border with SE Georgia, to SE Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf
of Mexico coast, to 21N97W at the coast of Mexico, in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. High
level clouds are moving into the Gulf of Mexico, now to the
northwest of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the
coast of Mexico near 23N98W.

Fresh to strong SE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet
to 7 feet, are in a swath that is about 240 nm wide, that
extends from the coastal waters of the lower Texas Gulf coast to
the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Some haze and smoke are being observed in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico and in the west central Gulf of Mexico. The smoke
is due to agricultural fires and forest fires that have been
occurring in Mexico during the last week. The visibilities have
been reduced to 6 nm or less in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong SE winds, and building seas, are expected in the
western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. This situation
will be happening to the east of a cold front, that is forecast
to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Strong winds are
possible on Friday evening, behind the front, in the SW Gulf of
Mexico near the Veracruz coast. Hazy sky conditions, that are
associated with agricultural fires in southern Mexico, are
expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the part that
is from 17N northward from 72W eastward. An upper level trough
extends from 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Hispaniola, to the
islands of San Andres and Providencia, that are about 120 nm to
the east of the coast of Nicaragua. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through Panama
about 45 nm to the north of its border with Colombia, beyond
08N86W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm to the southeast
of the monsoon trough, between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela
and 74W in Colombia, and in Colombia from 07N to 09N between 73W
and 75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal
waters of Colombia from 05N southward from 80W eastward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-
low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest concentration of
clouds and possible precipitation is from 74W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are possible near Colombia tonight.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are possible in the Windward
Passage, and to the south of Hispaniola tonight, as high
pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras on Thursday
night, as a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N54W, to 28N60W, to 25N71W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 330 nm to the east and to the
southeast of the cold front, from 21N northward.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1023 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N70W, through NE Florida, toward
SE Louisiana.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 32N31W. A dissipating
occluded front curves away from the 1015 mb low pressure center,
through 32N27W to 31N27W. A dissipating cold front continues
from 31N27W to 27N29W. A surface trough continues from 27N29W to
25N32W 25N39W, to 28N45W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate is within
330 nm of the center in the east quadrant. Isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is
from 20N northward between 20W and 50W.

A cold front, that is to the east of the Bahamas, will shift
eastward and weaken overnight. High pressure and benign marine
conditions will prevail in the forecast waters through Friday
night. It is possible that a cold front may push to the south of
30N on Saturday.

$$
mt/dm
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