[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to
05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 03N40W and
to the coast of Brazil at 03N51W. Large clusters of numerous
strong convection are over the interior of Africa extending to
just along the coast from 04N to 06N. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is well south of the trough and Africa from the
Equator to 02N between 05W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic
westward to across the north-central Gulf waters. The associated
gradient is maintaining generally gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds over the majority of the Gulf. Over the far
western Gulf, moderate to occasionally fresh southeast winds are
occurring mainly due to strengthening low pressure that is over
western Texas. Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft across the Gulf,
except for higher seas of 5-7 ft in the far western Gulf. Broken
to scattered low clouds along with broken to overcast are over
the far western Gulf to along the Texas coast north Corpus
Christi. Additionally, some haze and smoke is observed in the SW
and W Central Gulf areas due to agricultural and forest fires
occurring in Mexico. Visibility is presently reduced to 6 nm or
less in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast: The high pressure ridge will gradually shift
eastward through Thu while weakening in response to a cold front
that will be moving across central Texas. The moderate to
occasionally fresh southeast winds over the far western Gulf
will increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed and Wed night along
with building seas. These winds are expected to diminish Thu and
seas will slowly subside through Fri. Gale conditions are
possible on Fri behind the front over the far SW Gulf, including
the Veracruz area and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between Atlantic high pressure of 1024 mb
centered west of Bermuda near 33N73W and lower pressure over
Colombia and Venezuela is resulting in a small area of fresh
to strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia and
mainly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the
rest of the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds
are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, northeast to east winds
are lighter, gentle to moderate in speeds except for fresh east
winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across
the Caribbean, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft associated with
the small area of fresh to strong northeast winds along the coast
of Colombia. No significant deep convection is noted over the
Caribbean this evening, which is typical for the month of
April. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident
over the waters offshore the west coast of Puerto Rico and
over the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
over some locations of the interior of Puerto Rico. Isolated
showers moving westward are seen over the northeastern Caribbean
waters as well as the waters surrounding the Leeward Islands and
near the southern Windward Islands. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are over some areas of Colombia and Venezuela.

For the forecast: The fresh to strong northeast winds along
the coast of Colombia will diminish to fresh speeds Wed and
to moderate speeds Thu and change little through Fri night.
The fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras will become
fresh to strong east to southeast winds Wed night and continue
through Fri, then diminish to fresh speeds through Fri night as
a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The fresh to strong
northeast winds in the Windward Passage will continue through
early Thu. Fresh to strong east winds will develop south of the
Dominican Republic late tonight and continue through early Thu
before diminish to fresh speeds as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W: A cold front extends from near 32N56W to 27N63W,
where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N72W. Areas of
rain with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
to the east and southeast of the front from 22N to 30N between
52W and 65W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
north of 30N between 52W-57W. Northeast to east fresh winds are
northwest of the front, while southeast of the front winds are
gentle or weaker in speeds. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the
front and slightly less southeast of the front. High pressure is
over the waters west and northwest of the front.

For the forecast: The cold front will continue moving eastward
Thu while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will
dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is
forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri night.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the
front over the waters north of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu
night.

East of 65W: A dissipating cold front extends from near 32N30W
to 26N35W, where it transitions to a trough to 26N43W. Broken
to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible scattered
showers are present east of the front from 25N to 32N between
25W-29W. Scattered to broken low clouds with possible isolated
showers are elsewhere north of 24N and east of front to 24W.
The pressure gradient between relatively weak high pressure
over this areas and the ITCZ is allowing for gentle to
moderate fresh northeast to east trade winds across the Atlantic
north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, mainly due to NW
to N swell. Little change in winds or seas is anticipated
during the next few days.

$$
Aguirre
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