[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W and continues southward to 05N16W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ, to 02N26W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 01N to 07N between 09W and 16W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of the ITCZ
from 03N to 06N between 19W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends eastward from the western Atlantic across
northern Florida into the north-central Gulf waters. The ridge
is maintaining moderate east to southeast winds over the
majority of the Gulf. Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to
strong southeast winds north of the Yucatan peninsula to around
24N. A surface trough shows up as well in the scatterometer
winds just west of the Yucatan near 91W. There are a few clouds
across the NW Gulf waters, but minimal shower activity. A large
area of haze and some smoke is observed in the SW and W Central
Gulf areas due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the
near coastal waters of the SW gulf, low level visibility may be
reduced to 6 nm or less due to areas of smoke.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually shift eastward in
response to a cold front that will move into the western Gulf on
Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are expected
across the western Gulf through Thu morning ahead of the front.
Strong northerly winds are possible Fri evening behind the front
in the SW Gulf near Veracruz. Hazy sky conditions associated
with agricultural fires in southern Mexico are expected to
continue in the SW Gulf through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure N of the area near 31N73W is supporting
areas of fresh to locally strong winds in the Windward Channel,
the Gulf of Honduras, and near the coast of Colombia. Recent
scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh winds across
the rest of the basin. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 4 ft except
5-6 ft in the areas of higher winds noted above. An area of
active convection is noted over northern Colombia and Venezuela,
and a few showers are evident near the ABC Islands and southern
Windward Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night as a cold
front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere across the region through Sun as high
pressure north of the region shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from north of the forecast area through
32N52W to 24N60W to just east of the Bahamas near 22N69W.
Scattered moderate showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
evident within 150 nm on either side of the frontal boundary
between 50W and 65W. recent scatterometer data shows moderate NE
winds immediately west of the cold front, and moderate to fresh
easterly winds further west across the southern Bahamas, as well
as north of Cuba and Hispaniola. A surface trough, the remnant
of an old frontal boundary, stretches across the east-central
Atlantic from 32N28W to 30N27W to 24N33W to 27N45W. Isolated
shower activity is noted along the trough axis.

For the forecast, the cold front east of the Bahamas will shift
eastward and weaken today as it moves into the central Atlantic.
High pressure and benign marine conditions will prevail across
the northern forecast waters through Thu. Southerly winds will
increase east of Florida on Fri. A cold front may push south of
30N on Sat, then stall and weaken in the central Atlantic Sun.

$$
Mundell
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