[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to
05N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 03N35W and to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N-01.5N between 12W-15W. Similar convection is observed
from 04N-06N between 21W-33W, and from 04N-06N between 48W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E to
SE winds. Seas are generally 3-4 ft over the western half of the
Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern half of the basin. Buoys located
over the NW and N-central Gulf are reporting fog. No significant
precipitation is observed across the Gulf region. Smoke from
ongoing agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is
spreading across portions of the western Gulf, mainly south of
27N and west of 90W. It is limiting visibility in some areas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and building seas to
8-9 ft are expected across the western Gulf tonight through Thu
morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf
waters on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over
SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data depict moderate to
fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with an area
of fresh to strong NE-E winds near the coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted in the eastern and
central Caribbean, with light and variable winds over the NW
Caribbean, with the exception of fresh easterly winds in the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas are 6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 3-5
ft across the remainder of the basin, except 1-3 ft N of 19N
between 76W-87W.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to
move across the area producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. These patches of moisture are currently more concentrated
over the eastern Caribbean N of 15N and E of 75W affecting the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands as well
as Hispaniola. Increasing moisture over the NE Caribbean will
support some shower activity over the Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico Wed and Thu. This could be associated with a mid to upper
level trough located just W of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near
the coast of Colombia tonight. Thereafter, mainly moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind
speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri
as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally
strong northeast winds are also expected in the Windward Passage
and south of the Dominican Republic tonight through early Thu as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to the central Bahamas. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are associated with the front E
of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front
forecast to shift eastward and weaken today. High pressure in
the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters W of 60W
through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the
northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the waters N
of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night.

E of 60W: A frontal trough is analyzed from 31N32W to 26N40W to
26N47W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds with isolated showers
is related to the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
area is under the influence of a surface high pressure ridge.
Gentle winds are present over the eastern and central Atlantic
generally from 20N to 30N. A tighter pressure gradient farther
south between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh
trade winds from 06N-20N between 35W-60W, and also along the W
coast of Africa and regional waters from 11N-21N. Northerly swell
generated by a gale center located W of the Azores will briefly
reach the forecast waters N of 30N between 35W and 40W tonight,
building seas to 7-8 ft. The northerly swell that had been
occurring east of 30W during the last couple of days is now in a
subsiding trend.

$$
GR
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