[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to
04N23W to 03N33W. A surface trough is along 05N37W 02N40W, to
the Equator along 43W. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the
coastal plains and coastal waters of Brazil and French Guiana
from 03N to 06N between 49W and 53W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 03N southward between 05W and 22W,
and from 02N to 06N between 20W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N78W, through the northern
sections of Florida, to SE Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf of
Mexico coast, to the Deep South of Texas. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

Smoke from ongoing agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and
Guatemala is spreading across portions of the southwest Gulf,
mainly south of 26N and west of 90W. It is limiting visibility
in some areas of the southwest Gulf per latest nearby surface
observations.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E
to SE winds. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected across the
western Gulf Tue night through Thu morning ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters on Thu. Gale
conditions are possible behind the front over SW Gulf, including
the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is covering the
northwestern three-fourths of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level
trough extends from Bermuda, to Hispaniola, to the northern
sections of Colombia.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, through the
southern sections of Panama, beyond 08N84W, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong in clusters is in Colombia and the NW sections
of Venezuela near the Lake Maracaibo, from 04N to 09N between
72W in NW Venezuela and 79W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-
low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest concentration of
clouds and possible precipitation is from 14N northward from 72W
eastward.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia tonight, and again Tue night. Thereafter, mainly
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Fri.
Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed
night through Fri as a cold front moves across the Gulf of
Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The first cold front passes through 32N60W, to 30N62W, to
25N70W, across the central Bahamas, to 24N79W in the Straits of
Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is within 300 nm to the east and to the
southeast of the cold front, from 22N northward.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N78W, through the northern
sections of Florida, toward SE Louisiana.

The second cold front passes through 32N33W to 31N34W. The cold
front is dissipating from 31N34W to 26N40W and 26N48W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between 25W and 50W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
north and northwest of the cold front/dissipating cold front.

A cold front extending from 31N60W to the central Bahamas will
shift eastward and weaken on Tue. High pressure in the wake of
the front will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The
next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida
coast by Fri evening.

$$
MT/GR
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