[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to
05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N36W.  A break in
the ITCZ occurs with a trough from 05N38W to 01N41W. The ITCZ
resumes from 03N43W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists south
of 05N east of 10W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
00N to 06N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends over the southeastern United
States promoting E to SE gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf
this morning. Seas are small, generally 3-4 ft across the Gulf.
No significant deep convection is present, though scattered
showers are occurring within 120 NM of the Texas and NE Mexico
coasts. Additionally, some haze is noted in the SW and W Central
Gulf due to agricultural and forest fires occurring in Mexico.

Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas of 8 to 9 ft are
expected across the western Gulf tonight through Thu morning
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters
on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over SW
Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate north-south pressure gradient from a 1025 mb Bermuda
High near 33N74W and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela
are contributing to generally gentle to moderate NE to E trades
across the Caribbean.  The exception is fresh to strong NE winds
just north of Colombia. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the
Caribbean, except 6-8 ft just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is noted over the Caribbean this morning,
typical of April conditions. Scattered showers are present just
south of Hispaniola and adjacent to the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are
forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold
front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and
south of the Dominican Republic tonight through early Thu as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W:  A cold front extends from 32N57W to 27N65W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to 24N74W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 23N to 32N between 55W and 62W
ahead of the front. Winds northwest of the front are NE to E
moderate to fresh, while southeast of the front winds are gentle
or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the front and slightly
less southeast of the front.

The cold will shift eastward while weakening today. High
pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast
waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off
the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the
waters N of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night.

East of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N31W to 28N31W, where
it transitions to a trough to 25N44W. Scattered showers are
present within 120 NM east of the front. A moderate north-south
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to fresh NE to E trades
across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7
ft, mainly due to NW to N swell. Little change in winds or seas
are anticipated for the next few days.

$$
Landsea/Rivera-Acevedo
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