[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea/Sierra
Leone border near 09N13W then continues SW to 03N20W to 02N26W.
The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N
between 13W-25W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are
noted over parts of Liberia and Ivory Coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure centered over
South Carolina/Georgia border to the Florida Panhandle, and
across the northern Gulf into southern Texas. Fresh northerly
winds and seas less than 8 ft are noted in the wake of the front.
A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front over
the NE Gulf and northern Florida. The front will push eastward
across the Gulf waters through this evening while gradually
weakening. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the NE Gulf east of the front. Light to
gentle winds are seen elsewhere ahead of the front with the
exception of moderate NE winds near the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects.

Hazy sky conditions from agricultural fires in southern Mexico
are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico today.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected across the western Gulf
Wed and Wed night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
the coast of Texas late Thu or Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depict fresh to strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas
to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in
the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate SE
winds south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the
basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of
these patches of moisture are currently affecting Puerto Rico and
the US/UK Virgin Islands as well as Hispaniola.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in the
Gulf of Honduras will diminish this morning, and could return Thu
night as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the lee of the Greater
Antilles, including the Windward Passage by midweek as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023 mb
high pressure located near 32N58W. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an
area of low pressure located over South Carolina/Georgia border.
The attendant cold front will move east of northern Florida this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are on increase over the waters
N of 29N and W of 74W to NE Florida. The cold front is forecast
to reach from 31N72W to central Florida this evening, from 28N65W
to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Mon evening, and from
26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening while weakening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are noted per
scatterometer data N of 27N west of 65W while mainly moderate
E-SE winds are observed S of 27N and W of 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
E of the Bahamas.

Another 1022 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N38W. A
surface trough is analyze between the two high pressure areas
and runs from 31N48W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure
area between Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to
strong NW winds just north of the forecast waters, with seas of
10-16 ft. Seas of 8-13 ft dominate most of the region from 20N-
31N and E of 30W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to
8 ft seas are noted south of 20N.

$$
GR
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