[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W and continues SW to
03N19W to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to 01N36W to
02N44W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is seen from 00N-07N between
05W-17W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03S-06N between 17W-23W, and from 02S-05N between
23W-39W. Similar convection is within 60 nm of the coast of
Brazil from 0.5S-04N, west of 48.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from New Port Richey
Florida near 28N83W to 23N97W, dissipating to the coast of
Mexico near 23N98W. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the north of
the cold front, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate wind
speeds are south of the front, with 2-4 ft seas. Over the SW
Gulf to the south of the front, a weak 1009 mb low pressure is
near 19N93W. A surface trough extends NE from the low, and
another trough extends NW from the low. No significant
precipitation is observed over the Gulf, as showers and tstorms
seen near the cold front are located east of the basin, over the
Florida Peninsula and west Atlantic.

The cold front will push eastward across the Gulf waters through
this evening while gradually weakening. Fresh northerly winds
over the north-central and northeast basin behind the front will
diminish this afternoon. Hazy sky conditions from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico are possible across most of the western
and central Gulf of Mexico today, mainly to the south of the
weakening cold front. Wed and Wed night, fresh to strong SE to S
winds are expected across the western Gulf ahead of the next
cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas late on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the
Caribbean Sea. As a result, subsidence and dry weather prevail
across the basin. A recent ASCAT data pass depicts fresh trade
winds over the eastern Caribbean, with moderate trades
elsewhere. Fresh winds are also likely occurring in the
south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras, areas not
covered by the recent ASCAT pass. Seas are 5-7 ft in the
south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, 3-5 ft
elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft south
of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in
the Gulf of Honduras are forecast to return Thu night as a cold
front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are
also expected in the lee of the Greater Antilles, including the
Windward Passage by midweek as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N77W to Daytona Beach Florida.
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted southeast
of the front, mainly to the north of 27.5N and west of 69W,
including over the central Florida Peninsula. A recent ASCAT
data pass shows fresh to strong S to SW winds along and
southeast of the front, mainly north of 27N and west of 70W,
where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh W to NW winds are behind the front.
The cold front is forecast to reach from 32N61W to 27N69W to the
NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by Mon evening, and from
32N55W to 26N65W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening while
weakening. Scattered showers and tstorms will continue ahead of
the front through Monday, supporting gusty winds. A 1024 mb high
pressure centered near 33.5N 54.5W currently extends broad
surface ridging to the southeastern and central Bahamas with
moderate wind speeds across the area and 4-5 ft seas.

Farther east, a weak cold front extends from 32N44W to 29N49W.
Scattered moderate showers are seen north of 28N between
41W-44W. A 1023 mb high pressure is near 31N37W. A recent ASCAT
pass shows gentle to moderate wind speeds across most of the
basin from 21N-30N, with moderate to fresh trades over the
tropical Atlantic south of 21N. Seas are averaging 4-7 ft across
most of the central Atlantic. A 999 mb low pressure area west of
Portugal near 38N18W is supporting fresh NW winds north of 29N
and east of 28W. Seas of 9-12 ft in northerly swell are
occurring north of 25N and east of 28W. The swell will gradually
diminish through Mon night as the low moves eastward and weakens.

$$
Hagen
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