[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N15W, to 03N20W, and
to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W, to the Equator along
37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 06N southward between 13W and 23W. Scattered to
numerous strong is from 04N northward to the coast of Africa
between 04W and 06W, and from 03N southward between 03W and 06W.
Scattered moderate to strong is from 04N to 06N between 41W and
46W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has reached the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from the coastal sections of south central Louisiana, to the
middle Texas Gulf coast. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 20N95W in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb
low pressure center, to 24N94W and to 29N91W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 22N southward from between the surface
trough and Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover
the waters from 23N to 27N from 84W westward. Rainshowers are
possible in this area of cloudiness.

Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, has been
apparent in satellite imagery, causing hazy sky conditions and
possibly lower visibilities, as far as the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. It  is possible that smoke may be dense in some parts of
the central Gulf of Mexico. Hazy sky conditions are possible in
most of the western Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the
weekend.

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico, and it will move
eastward across the basin through Sunday. Fresh northerly winds
are expected in the wake of the front, through Sunday morning.
Hazy sky conditions, from fires in southern Mexico, are possible
across most of the western Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of
the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected in the
western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night, in
advance of the next cold front, that is forecast to reach the
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in southern
coastal Guatemala. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of
the area. An upper level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean,
across the SE Caribbean Sea islands, toward the eastern half of
Venezuela.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows a 17N74W anticyclonic circulation
center, and broad anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the
Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers Central America
from Costa Rica southward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows: a NE
Nicaragua cyclonic circulation center. A trough extends from NE
Nicaragua to 15N64W.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through
the eastern sections of Panama near 08N78W, beyond 08N84W, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is along 10N between 73W and 74W. Scattered to numerous
strong is in southern Colombia, from the Equator southward
between 71W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere in Colombia.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-
low level wind flow.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Sunday night, then mainly moderate to
fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish on Sunday, and they may return on
Wednesday night and Thursday, as a cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds also are expected in the
lee of the Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage, by
midweek, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W, to 31N50W. A surface trough
continues from 31N50W to 27N60W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated strong, are within 150 nm to the east and southeast of
the cold front, from 28N52W northeastward. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm
to the northwest of the surface trough, and within 60 nm to the
southeast of the surface trough.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N58W. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front westward and northwestward. A surface ridge extends from
the 1024 mb high pressure center, to 31N70W, and to Lake
Okeechobee in southern Florida.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N38W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 13N
northward to the east of the cold front/surface trough.

Fresh to strong southerly winds have developed off the coast of
Florida, and they will continue overnight. A cold front will
move to the east of northern Florida early on Sunday morning.
The cold front will weaken as it moves to the NE of the Bahamas
through Monday night. The wind speeds will diminish as the front
moves across the area. Scattered rainshowers and strong
thunderstorms are possible to the east of the front.

$$
mt/gr
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