[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W
to 02N30W to 00N45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 07W-
11W. Scattered moderate from 02N-05N between 20W-35W, and from
00N-04N between 42W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 mb low pressure center is over the southwest Gulf off the
coast of Veracruz near 21N96W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated moderate to fresh NW winds between the low
pressure and the coast near Tampico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge
extends from the western Atlantic to the northwest Gulf. Fresh SW
winds are evident over the northeast and north-central Gulf,
between the ridge axis and a frontal boundary just inland. Seas
are 5 to 8 ft in this area, as noted in recent altimeter
satellite data and buoy observations. Mostly moderate southerly
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A large
plume of smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is
noted in satellite imagery causing hazy sky conditions and
possibly lower visibility as far as the northeast Gulf. Smoke
may be dense over portions of the central Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across
the Gulf through tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
this evening and push eastward across the basin through Sun with
winds diminishing behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms can
be expected across the north- central Gulf through tonight. Hazy
sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico are possible across
most of the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern
Caribbean Sea is maintaining fairly dry conditions across the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off
Colombia and over the northwest Caribbean from the central coast
of Honduras to northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the
eastern and central Caribbean with gentle to moderate SE winds
south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is observed across the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high
pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh
to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through
early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of
the Greater Antilles by midweek. Fresh to strong winds could
return to the Gulf of Honduras later in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure is centered near
Bermuda to central Florida. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an area of
lower pressure over the southeast United States. A few showers
and thunderstorms are evident in a line from near Jacksonville
to 32N79W. Mostly moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere west
of 65W, with fresh winds evident along the north coast of
Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in open waters.

Another 1024 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N37W. A
cold front is analyze between the two high pressure areas from
32N50W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure area between
Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to strong NW winds
north of 28N and east of 30W, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell
north of 18N. Elsewhere mostly moderate trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are noted south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the fresh to strong
southerly winds off the coast of Florida and will continue
overnight. A cold front will move east of northern Florida early
Sun morning, then weaken as it moves NE of the Bahamas through
Mon night. Winds will diminish as the front moves across the
area. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible
east of the front.

$$
Christensen
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