[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N23W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate isolted strong convection
is from 01S to 05N between 07W and 20W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the
monsoon/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extending from Crystal River,
Florida to 26N90W to the western Bay of Campeche continue to
support scattered showers and tstms ahead of the front, N of 24N
E of 89W. Fresh to near gale force N to NW winds are behind the
front S of 28N, being the strongest winds near Veracruz, Mexico
and the Bay of Campeche with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are behind the front over the north-central and northwest
basin. Southerly wind of the same speed is ahead of the front
over the SE gulf.

Strong to near gale force winds occurring west of this front
along the E and SE Mexican coast will diminish overnight. This
front will remain nearly stationary into mid week, before
reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far
southeast Gulf from mid to late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

La Soufriere volcano on Saint Vincent remains in a continually
active state, and additional eruptions and ash plumes are
possible at any time. The most recent report from the Satellite
Analysis Branch indicate that volcanic ash emissions extend within
60 nm west and 30 nm southwest of the summit. Numerical models
forecast little change in wind direction through the next 12
hours. Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise
caution, and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National
Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.

A middle-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula supports a
surface trough inland, which is generating showers and tstms
extending nearly 120 nm off the coast of Belize into the Gulf of
Honduras. The sea breeze is supporting a line of showers and tstms
along Central America, which extends to the coastal waters. Deep
layer dry air is elsewhere as indicated by low level precipitable
water and mid-level water vapor imagery, which is favoring fair
weather conditions.

Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, extends a ridge
axis SW to the northern and eastern Caribbean and continue to
support fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central basin
and moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate trade winds with seas to 7 ft are elsewhere.

The ridge N of the area will shift east ahead of a weak front
moving through the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase over
mainly the south central Caribbean through mid week. Looking
ahead, the trade winds will diminish by late week as the high
pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong winds will
persist off Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the
coast of northeast Florida through the early part of the week, as
a ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic through the
central Bahamas. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a
slightly stronger frontal boundary will move off the southeast
U.S. coast by Thu. This front will reach from near Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by Thu night, then start to stall along 25N
through Fri night as high pressure builds between northeast
Florida and Bermuda.

Broad surface ridging is across the remainder Atlantic waters,
supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds over the West
Africa adjacent waters and over the central tropical waters.

$$
Ramos
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