[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 08N20W, and to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from
05N24W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 03SN35W, and
to 03S39W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate,
and locally strong, is from 08N southward from 52W eastward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Cedar Key in Florida. The front becomes stationary from Cedar
Key in Florida, to 27N90W in the north central Gulf of Mexico,
and curving to 19N95W along the coast of Mexico. The stationary
front continues northwestward in interior sections of Mexico. A
surface trough is just to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula,
along 90W/91W from 18N in Mexico to 25N. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm to the
south of the stationary front between 83W and 92W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 180 nm on the
northern side of the stationary front, and in Florida and in the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between 76W and 83W.

A nearly stationary front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida,
to 25N92W, to just south of Veracruz in Mexico. Strong to near
gale-force winds are occurring to the west of this boundary
along the Mexican coast. This front will remain nearly
stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air
pushes the front into the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico from
Wednesday into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows: broad anticyclonic wind flow in
the Caribbean Sea. A ridge is along 79W, between Jamaica and
80W. The GFS model for 500 mb shows: an anticyclonic circulation
center that is in the northern coastal waters of Haiti.
Anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward from 80W eastward. A NW-to-SE oriented trough extends
from the Yucatan Channel to 13N76W. The GFS model for 700 mb
shows: a ridge from an Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation
center that is near 23N68W, to eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, across
Panama along 08N/09N, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is in a few clusters, from 13N southward from 75W
westward, in general. One of the specific areas of precipitation
is along the coast of Colombia between 75W and 77W. Another
specific area of precipitation is from 10N to 12N between 80W
and 83W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

A ridge extends to the north of the basin, across the Atlantic
Ocean, through the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong SE winds
north of central Honduras will diminish this afternoon. The high
pressure center will shift eastward, in advance of a weak front
that is moving through the Gulf of Mexico,
allowing the trade winds to increase in mainly the south central
Caribbean Sea through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N59W, to 31N61W. The front is stationary from 31N61W to
31N73W. The front is warm from 31N73W to the NE coast of Florida
near 30N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 24N northward between 40W and 60W, and from 28N northward
from 60W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N31W, to 29N42W to 22N59W, across the Bahamas to
24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean away from the 59W-to-NE Florida
frontal boundary southward.

An east-to-west-oriented frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary off the coast of northeastern Florida, through the
early part of the week, as a ridge extends westward from the
central Atlantic Ocean through the central Bahamas. Looking
ahead: as the ridge shifts eastward by Wednesday, a slightly
stronger frontal boundary will move off the southeastern U.S.A.
coast by Thursday.

$$
mt/ec
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