[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
A new eruption occurred earlier today. GOES-16 Geocolor imagery
from yesterday at 2100 UTC right before sunset shows that the
plume is diffusing over the east Caribbean from 13N-14N between
61W-63W. The volcano remains in a very active state, and additional
eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners
transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution and are
encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center
by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N23W to 02N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 02S-04N between 08W-14W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 17W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front is over northern Florida entering
the Gulf out of Tampa Bay, FL, and extends west to 27N86W where
the boundary stalls and continues into the western Bay of Campeche.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of the front
north of 24N and east of 88W. The latest scatterometer pass reveals
fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the front, with the strong winds
offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in this region are 6-11 ft. Ahead
of the front and within the Florida Straits, winds are E-NE moderate
to fresh, while within the Yucatan Channel winds are fresh from the
south. Seas ahead of the front and within the far northeast Gulf are
2-4 ft.

The fresh to strong winds occurring west of the front along the
Mexican coast will diminish overnight. This front will remain
nearly stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry
air pushes the front into the far southeast Gulf from mid to
late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the
island of St. Vincent. See the special features section above
for details.

A middle-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula supports a surface
trough inland, which is generating scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection nearly 120 nm off the coast of Belize into the
Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, deep layer dry air is elsewhere as
indicated by low level precipitable water and mid-level water vapor
imagery, which is favoring fair weather conditions.

A pressure gradient between lower pressure over Colombia and a
surface high pressure over the central Atlantic extending into
the northern Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong
winds over the south-central basin with seas to 9 ft and moderate to
locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trade winds
with seas to 7 ft are elsewhere.

The ridge N of the area will shift east ahead of a weak front
moving through the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase over
mainly the south central Caribbean through mid week. Looking
ahead, the trade winds will diminish by late week as the high
pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong winds will
persist off Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the
coast of northeast Florida through the early part of the week, as a
ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic through the central
Bahamas. Broad gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow extends over the
Atlantic north of 20N. South of 20N trades are moderate to fresh.

Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly stronger
frontal boundary will move off the southeast U.S. coast by Thu. This
front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Thu
night, then start to stall along 25N through Fri night as high
pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda.


$$
Mora/Ramos
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