[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a cold front and an
attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area
Saturday night, behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in
that area, before winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday
morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
The latest eruption occurred early yesterday morning around 1000
UTC. GOES-16 Geocolor imagery from yesterday at 2100 UTC shows
that the plume is becoming diffuse over the east central
Caribbean. The volcano remains in a very active state, and
additional eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time.
Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution,
and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National
Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
02N32W to the coast of Brazil in South America near 00N45W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-
07N between 07W-14W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02S-04N between 38W-45W.
.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

As of 0300 UTC, A stationary front extends from 29N83W near
Cedar Key, Florida westward to a 1008 mb low located near
29N94W. A cold front extends southwestward from the low to
28N97W near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are located north of 28N across the Gulf.
The latest scatterometer data notes south of the front and east
of 90W winds are moderate from the S-SW, while west of 90W
moderate winds are from the SE-E. Seas are 2-4 ft across the
Gulf.

The weak stationary front will remain over the northern Gulf
into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
stretch from near Tampa Bay, Florida to central Bay of Campeche
by the end of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop
offshore Tampico, Mexico by Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.

Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. The East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the SW
Caribbean south of 11N, including over portions of NW Venezuela,
N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Seas of 3-6 ft are over most
of the basin, except offshore of Colombia seas are up to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean Sun night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N67W and extends
westward to a 1010 mb low near 31N77W, then continues
southwestward to near Daytona Beach, Florida. The latest radar
imagery reveals scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N
off the coast of Florida. Similar convection may be occurring
north of 27N between 60W-70W with winds fresh from the SW and
seas 6-8 ft. Winds are moderate westerlies W of 70W with seas 3-
5 ft. For the forecast, the front move E but remain N of 28N
this weekend. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast
Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate.

A weak surface trough is over the central Atlantic, stretching
from 31N37W to 24N48W to 19N60W. Scattered showers are possible
within 60 nm of the trough, south of 26N. Elsewhere, ridging
from high pressure dominates supporting gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 35W. Winds south of
20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies with seas
6-8 ft. Seas north of 30N range from 7-9 ft.


$$
Mora
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