[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of Mexico very early
Saturday morning. The front will move southward across the basin
bringing strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force
northerly winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico
area Saturday night, behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft
in that area, before winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday
morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
A new eruption occurred early this morning around 1000 UTC. GOES-
16 Geocolor imagery 2100 UTC near sunset shows that the plume is
becoming diffuse over the east central Caribbean. The volcano
remains in a very active state, and additional eruptions and ash
plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the nearby
waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to report
volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-
4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea in West Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N50W to the coast
of Brazil in South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 03N-07N between 10W-17W and 00N-04N
between 33W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from 28N83W near Cedar Key Florida
westward to the 29N94W near Houston, TX. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are located north of 28N across the Gulf.
South of the front S winds are light to moderate, while north of
the front the winds are E moderate to fresh.  Strong N to NE
winds are occurring in the convection. Total precipitable water
imagery shows lower moisture content prevails over the central
and southern Gulf.  GOES Geocolor imagery and coastal surface
observations from Mexico suggest that smoke or haze is occurring
over portions of the SW Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of
93W, potentially reducing visibility to 3-5 NM. Seas are 2-4 ft
across the Gulf this afternoon.

The weak stationary front will remain over the northern Gulf
into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
stretch from near Tampa Bay, Florida to central Bay of Campeche
by the end of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop
offshore Tampico, Mexico by Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.

A surface trough extends from 17N66W east-northeastward to
beyond 20N58W. Scattered showers are present within 60 NM of the
through. The East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered
moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 11N, including
over portions of NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, and Costa
Rica. Fresh E trades are occurring over the south-central
Caribbean with moderate trades elsewhere, except for light to
gentle winds south of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Fresh SE winds
are also likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4-6
ft prevail over much of the basin, except 1-3 ft south of Cuba
to the Cayman Islands and Jamaica.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean Sun night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from N Florida eastward to a weak
1010 mb low at 31N78W, then continues eastward of NE Florida. A
surface trough also exists south of the front from 30N74W to
27N77W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 28N
west of 77W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds ahead of the
front, mainly north of 28N between 62W-72W. Seas of 8-10 ft are
present in the area of fresh to strong winds. The front will
stall north of 28N through Sat then dissipate as it lifts
northward through Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
dominate.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N35W to
25N47W, where it transitions to a surface trough that continues
to the NE Caribbean near 17N66W. Scattered moderate convection
exists within 60 NM of the cold front. Scattered showers are
also present within 60 NM of the trough. A secondary dissipating
cold front extends from 32N44W to 29N50W. Winds south of 30N are
mainly gentle, but some fresh winds are noted north of 30N. The
cold front will dissipate by early Sat. A 1024 mb high is near
36N23W. This high pressure is expected to remain in the same
general area during the next few days. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds are noted from 07N-20N between the Cabo Verde
Islands and 50W, where seas are 6-8 ft.

$$
Landsea/Hagen
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