[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0600 UTC, a cold front and an
attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area tonight,
behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in that area, before
winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday morning. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in
effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W.
The latest eruption occurred early yesterday morning around 1000
UTC. GOES-16 Geocolor imagery from yesterday at 2100 UTC shows
that the plume is becoming diffuse over the east central
Caribbean. The volcano remains in a very active state, and
additional eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time.
Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution,
and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National
Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
02N32W to the coast of Brazil in South America near 00N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N- 07N between 07W-
14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

A nearly stationary front along the northern Gulf coast connects
with a 1009 mb low near 29N94W. To the west, a cold front extends
along the Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are located north of 28N across the Gulf. Fresh NE
winds are occurring along the Texas coast behind the front, with
generally moderate SE winds elsewhere.

The weak stationary front will remain over the northern Gulf
into Saturday, before being overtaken by a cold front that will
stretch from near Tampa Bay, Florida to central Bay of Campeche
by the end of the weekend. Behind the front, gales will develop
offshore Tampico, Mexico by Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on St.
Vincent. See the Special Features section above for details.

Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are over
most of the basin, except offshore of Colombia seas are up to 7
ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected in the
NW Caribbean this weekend, and then again Tue night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean Sun night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slowing cold front extends from near Bermuda to near Melbourne
Florida. A few thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the Florida
coast, along this cold front. Winds are moderate and W to the W
of 70W with seas 3- 5 ft. For the forecast, the front move E but
remain N of 28N this weekend. Another cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate.

Elsewhere, ridging from high pressure dominates supporting gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 35W. Winds
south of 20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies
with seas 6-8 ft. Seas north of 30N range from 7-9 ft.

$$
KONARIK
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