[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
occasional emissions from its summit. The volcano could
erupt at any time with little notice. Ash may be reaching the
surface of the ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced.
Mariners who are transiting the waters near Saint Vincent should
exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic
debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, at 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 10W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends across the eastern Gulf including
the Florida Straits from 27N85W to 23N80W. The next frontal
system is developing over the central Gulf states, with
scattered to numerous moderate convection developing north of
29N between 88W-93W. The remainder of the basin is relatively
cloud-free. Latest scatterometer date depicts moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds prevailing across the basin.

The weak cold front will dissipate over the eastern and central
Gulf later today. High pressure will prevail across the basin
through Wed night. A cold front will reach the  northern Gulf
Thu, then stall and weaken on Fri. A stronger cold front will
move into the Northwest Gulf on Sat, with strong northerly winds
and building seas expected across the western Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section
above for more details.

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the basin at this
time, according to latest scatterometer data.  Seas are 2 to 3
ft across the northern Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
through Sat, except pulsing locally to fresh to strong through
the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of Colombia
through mid week, then in the south-central Caribbean this
weekend. SE winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Northwest
Caribbean starting early Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are
expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special
Features  section above for more details.

A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western Atlantic
waters. The primary cold front extends from a 1003 mb low near
35N55W to 24N65W to 22N75W, then becomes weak from that point
to 24N80W. To the east, another cold front extends from 31N51W
to 24N58W to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers
are noted along and within 200 nm east of this front, with fresh
northerly winds prevailing west of it. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north
of the secondary front, and 8-11 ft along the primary frontal
boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 29N29W. Seas
are generally 5 to 8 ft across the remainder of the basin,
except 3-4 north of the Greater Antilles.

The weakening cold front north of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico will move eastward through early today. Fresh to
strong northerly winds associated with reinforcing cold air north
of the front and east of 70W will shift eastward today and
weaken. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida
into the northern waters by early Fri, then stall north of the
Bahamas this weekend.

$$

ERA
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