[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
occasional light emissions from its summit. The volcano could
erupt at any time with little notice. Ash may be reaching the
surface of the ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced.
Mariners who are transiting the waters near Saint Vincent should
exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic
debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, at 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to the
equator near 38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 03N to 09N between 12W and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A so-called backdoor cold front has pushed across the Florida
peninsula into the far eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. This
frontal boundary will quickly dissipate over the eastern Gulf
waters today. A squall line that developed near the coast of
Louisiana last night produced strong thunderstorms and gusty
outflow winds to 25-30 kt based on ASCAT and buoy data. The
squall line convection has decreased significantly during the
past several hours, with multi-layer debris clouds and a few
lingering showers all that remains. A surface trough near the
Yucatan penisula is enhancing winds in the south-central Gulf
near 90W. The remainder of the basin is relatively cloud-free in
broad-scale east to southeast moderate wind flow.

A cold front will reach the northern Gulf Thu night, then stall
and weaken on Fri. A strong cold front will move into the NW
Gulf on Sat, with strong northerly winds and building seas
expected across the western Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters.
Moderate winds prevail over much of the Caribbean waters, except
fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2 to 3 ft across
the northern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and 3-5
ft elsewhere.

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting the nearby
waters should exercise caution.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
through Sat. SE winds will increase in the NW Caribbean Fri
night and Sat. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western Atlantic
waters. The primary cold front extends from a 1002 mb low near
32N54W to north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico near 20N68W.
Widespread showers are noted north of 22N east of the front to
50W, and scatterometer data shows fresh SW winds east of the
frontal boundary. A second cold front, from reinforcing cool
air, is analyzed from a 1003 mb low near 33N62W to 26N68W across
the Bahamas to the Florida Keys near 25N81W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are associated with the front. Isolated showers
are noted along this secondary front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft north
of the secondary front, and 8-9 ft along the primary frontal
boundary. Elsewhere, a broad weak 1019 mb area of high pressure
is centered in the tropical eastern Atlantic near 26N30W. Seas
are generally 5 to 7 ft across the Atlantic, except 3-4 north of
the Greater Antilles.

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano
remains in an active state of unrest, and could erupt erupt at
any time with little notice. Mariners transiting the Tropical N
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands should be aware of
the possibility of volcanic ash reaching the ocean surface.

The weakening cold front north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
will move eastward through tonight. Fresh northerly winds
associated with reinforcing cold air north of the Bahamas
between 68W and 75W will shift eastward today and weaken.
Another cold front will move east of northern Florida into the
northern waters on Fri, then stall north of the Bahamas this
weekend.

$$
Mundell
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