[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. A new explosive eruption has occurred
this afternoon, and the ash plume is forecast to reach Barbados
this evening and tonight. Ash may be reaching the surface of the
ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are
transiting the waters between Saint Vincent and Barbados should
exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic
debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, at 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of
west Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 07N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N22W to 02N35W to 04N45W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N-05N between 22W-25W. Scattered moderate convection
can be found from 01N-03N between 44W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb located E of NE Florida extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico producing gentle to moderate
winds across the western half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh
E-SE winds across the eastern half of the Gulf region. Convection
has flared-up across the north-central Gulf ahead of a frontal
boundary.

The ridge will remain in place through tonight. A cold front
will reach the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and weaken on Fri. A
stronger cold front will move into the Northwest Gulf on Sat,
with strong northerly winds and building seas expected across the
western Gulf this weekend. The front will stall from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the Bay of Campeche early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section
above for more details.

A ridge dominates Cuba and the NW Caribbean while a weak pressure
gradient noted over the eastern Caribbean thanks to the presence
of a frontal boundary near Puerto Rico. The most recent
scatterometer pass showed moderate to fresh NE winds across the
Windward Passage and downwind to just E of Jamaica. Similar wind
speeds are noted near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
the Caribbean through Sat, except pulsing locally to fresh to strong
through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of
Colombia through early Thu, then in the south-central Caribbean
this weekend into early next week. SE winds will pulse to fresh
to strong in the NW Caribbean starting early Fri through the
weekend as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano
on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special
Features section above for more details.

A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western-central
Atlantic waters. The primary cold front extends from 31N48W to
the easternmost tip of Dominican Republic. The second cold front
enters the forecast waters near 31N56W and continues SW to near
the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is
noted ahead of the first front, particularly N of 21N E of front
to 45W. The primary cold front will move eastward on Thu while
weakening. The secondary front will dissipate over the next 12-24
hours. Moisture associated with the primary front will affect
the Leeward Islands on Thu and Fri. Another cold front will move
east of northern Florida into the northern waters by early Fri,
then stall north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next
week.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of 1023 mb high pressure located near 29N31W. The pressure gradient
between this system and lower pressure over west Africa will
result in fresh trade winds across the Cabo Verde Islands, and
between these islands and the coast of W Africa Thu and Fri. By
Fri night into Sat, the trade wind flow will increase some between
35W and 50W.

$$
GR
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